AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures will persist through tomorrow before a gradual warming trend commences through the week. * A series of mini shortwave disturbances will impact the region starting on Wednesday, creating a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of showers each day through Saturday. * A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Overall zonal flow is expected over this next week as the recent system that brought a cold front over the weekend continues to move to the east. Precipitation chances are very low tomorrow as a result, but a series of small mid-level mini shortwave disturbances are expected to move through the region starting on Wednesday which will result in increased instability and a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Early CAM guidance suggests that it will be mostly showery convection and more isolated than widespread, with a low 20-30% chance on Wednesday. However, a thunderstorm or two is still possible, and the Storm Prediction Center does include Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk for Wednesday. Nothing severe is expected, though. The strongest shortwaves are expected on Thursday and Friday, which will produce the best rain chances of the week. Guidance has trended upwards on likelihood, increasing it from a 30-50% chance to a 40-50% chance for both afternoons. Again, early CAM reflectivity simulations seem to indicate mostly isolated light shower activity, but a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Chances lower back to 30% on Saturday as the strongest of the mini- shortwaves move away from the area. Conditions should be dry again Sunday into Monday. Temperatures should remain below normal for the next few days as northerly winds persist and cooler air from the last frontal system remains in place. By mid-week, winds will veer back to the southeast and temperatures are expected to warm to normal levels in the mid- 80s and then continue warming to slightly above normal (upper 80s/lower 90s) through the weekend. A sizable Pacific trough is expected to move across the South Central plains early next week, and will increase wind speeds early next week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system. There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight, and a moderate risk tomorrow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Conditions have improved to VFR at all airports and are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period as skies begin to clear. Winds will remain light to moderate and northerly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Outer (20-60 nm) Gulf Waters until 7 PM CDT this evening. SCEC conditions should persist through this evening for the Bay and the Nearshore waters. Conditions will then improve to favorable tonight through the weekend. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the weekend as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific through from the West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 57 78 66 82 / 0 10 30 30 HARLINGEN 54 79 62 83 / 0 10 20 20 MCALLEN 58 81 66 86 / 0 10 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 53 81 63 85 / 0 0 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 70 77 / 0 10 30 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 78 66 82 / 0 10 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175. && $$ $$