AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 222 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could see a few rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. - Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures on the rise. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could see a few rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. A upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and into New England will bring a cold pool aloft, with 850mb temperatures around -5C and 500mb temperatures below -30C. A shortwave then moves through, which would help support some light snow showers possibly developing and mixing in with rain showers, especially over the higher elevation areas. Guidance has trended towards a later start, perhaps after midnight/early Tuesday morning instead of Monday... though we can`t rule out a stray shower developing today in the higher elevations. Surface temperatures will likely hover near or possibly just below freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning, but they`re expected to make a fast recovery later Tuesday morning... into the low to mid 40s. A secondary shortwave moves through later Tuesday and may allow showers to linger through part of the day, but not expecting much in the way of rain totals. KEY MESSAGE 2...Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures on the rise. Drier conditions and southwesterly flow are expected to return to southern New England as a large high pressure system moves into the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Temperatures will improve throughout the second half of the week as the upper level trough moves off to the east and a warmer airmass advects into the region. Expecting highs to rebound into the 50s by Thursday and further improve into the 60s by Friday. However, some uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as some ensemble guidance hints at another backdoor front moving in Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure moving east from just to our north could encourage onshore flow early Sunday morning and possibly continuing through the day before it shifts further offshore and winds return to SW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18 TAF Update... Today: High confidence. VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kt. Highest gusts for higher elevations and Cape/Island terminals. Tonight: High confidence overall, moderate on possible precip chances. SCT-OVC cloud decks return overnight, VFR mostly. There is still uncertainty on the timing and coverage/chances of showers tonight. There is potential for brief -SHRASN after 06Z with pockets of brief MVFR possible. Gusts diminish by 01Z with W winds less than 10 kts. Winds become light and variable after 06Z. Tuesday: Moderate confidence. VFR with periods of MVFR ceilings improving to VFR mid afternoon/early evening. Scattered, brief -RASN showers Tuesday AM through early afternoon. Timing and coveraging lower confidence. Winds will shift through the day as a surface low passes through. Light SE flow to start, eventually shifting to NW from west to east in the afternoon. NW winds will trend stronger 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Tuesday Night: High confidence. VFR conditions. NW winds 8-12 kts, a few gusts up to 20 kts possible. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Few -RASN showers early after 09Z through 12Z, messaged as a PROB30 due to uncertainty in model guidance and low coverage of SH. Probabilities for scattered showers increase more toward 12Z, so included in TAF for -SHRASN through the afternoon. Showers will likely be brief in nature with MVFR ceilings. SE winds in the early AM shift to E/ENE by noon, shifting N late in afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. SCAs continue through most of today with seas at or above 5 ft across most waters and SW winds gusting 25-30 kts. Guidance has lowered on wind speeds tonight into Tuesday morning, so elected to allow SCAs to expire later this afternoon. Seas remain below 5 ft through Tuesday, but some northwesterly wind gusts may approach SCA levels Tuesday evening across the southern waters ahead of an approaching high pressure system. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254>256. && $$ $$