AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek including High Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf Reaching Local Beaches Starting Tuesday, Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday Morning and then Gale Warning begins Tuesday noon through Wednesday Night. Wind Advisory also issued across coastal NE FL on Tuesday and may need to be extended into Wednesday. - Fire Weather Watch Inland Southeast GA Tuesday afternoon - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Windy Coastal Conditions Rest of Today and Tonight - High Risk of Rip Currents - Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms possible for North Central FL The influence of high pressure ridging from out of the east will continue to weaken as prevailing flow shifts about to become onshore as upper level instability crosses over the Florida peninsula ahead of the slowly stalling frontal boundary. Breezy winds and beneficial stratiform rains will continue through today and tonight with a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of coastal north central Florida overnight, however chances remain more likely further to the south of the forecast area and over the Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s for southeast Georgia and ranging between the lower 70s and the lower 80s, with warmer temps occurring further southward. Overnight low temps will drop down into the 50s over inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday - Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday - Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida A mid to upper-level trough will remain oriented north-south across the region on Tuesday, gradually pivoting to a more northwest- southeast tilt by Wednesday evening. At the surface, a strong 1038 mb high centered over the southern Great Lakes will shift eastward, becoming positioned offshore of the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday evening. This pattern will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the southeast, support persistent and strengthening northeasterly flow. Otherwise, we continue to advertised cooler and breezy to windy onshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday area wide, with the stronger winds focused along the coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin where a wind advisory looks likely. Northeast winds of 20 to possibly 25 mph, with gusts of 40 mph are anticipated. Winds potentially stronger near 25 mph, gusts 45 mph for Wednesday and again along the coastal areas. The moist onshore flow supports convergence and the risk of scattered to possible numerous showers, with an isolated t-storm possible southern most zones. However, much drier/much less rainfall amounts north of I-10 and west of I-95 in southeast GA. Given the convergence for the northeast FL coast, locally moderate rainfall amounts possible, from about 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches. Temps will be on the cool side compared to normal. On Tuesday, highs will be upper 60s to lower 70s for most of northeast FL, coastal southeast GA, but mid 70s inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. On Wednesday, generally upper 60s to lower 70s expected but some mid 70s max temps well inland near locales from Ocala to Gainesville to Trenton. Despite the moisture from onshore flow, inland southeast GA may have red flag conditions for fire weather on Tuesday given the lower dewpoints there and breezy northeast winds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: -Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin A mid to upper level trough will remain in place across the region on Thursday supporting a continuation of cyclonic flow at 500 mb and some weak large scale ascent. By Friday, the trough begins to weaken and shift south, allowing mid level heights to slowly rise as ridging builds in from the west through the weekend. This transition will promote increasing subsidence and a drying trend heading into Saturday and Sunday, mainly for the coastal areas of northeast FL. At the surface, strong high pressure centered northeast will maintain a tight gradient on Thursday with broad inverted troughing lingering offshore. This setup will support persistent and gusty northeast winds. Weakened gradient relaxes on Friday with lower wind speeds going into Saturday and Sunday. Moist onshore flow on Thursday will continue to support a chance of showers with the best chance of showers for St Johns and Flagler counties where the higher PWAT air is located and convergence is more maximized. A couple of thunderstorms possible for northeast FL on Thursday. Rain chances much decrease on Friday as a drier air works in, with transition to mostly dry and warmer temps over the weekend. Temps in the 70s on Thursday, and temps respond on Friday through Sunday as the ridge builds in aloft. Max temps for the weekend reach mid 80s inland, but mid-upper 70s for the beaches/coast as we still see onshore flow/Atlantic sea breeze during the peak heating. Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will continue to create beach and marine hazards, including high surf, moderate beach erosion and elevated coastal water levels at times of high tide Thursday through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Gusty winds ranging from 020-060 with sustained wind speeds up to about 15 knots with gusts measuring to 25 knots through the afternoon will lessen slightly this evening by around 23z and then restrengthen overnight with conditions rising to Wind Advisory levels along the coast by around 12z. Stratiform rain is expected on and off through the forecast period with a minimal chance for storms forming south of SGJ. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect this morning for a surge of northeasterly winds pushing north to south along the coast. Strong onshore winds will continue through the week and will intensify to Gale Force midday Tuesday through Wednesday night as strong high pressure wedges in from the north. Strong onshore winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend. Rip Currents and Surf: An initial surge of northeast winds will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to near 12 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf. && .FIRE WEATHER... -FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA -CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH AND BREEZY INLAND SE GEORGIA TUESDAY -HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA TUESDAY AND HIGH DISPERSION FOR MANY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north today and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with potential for red flag conditions with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect at this time. Moisture levels will return above critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow will continue through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are expected each night this week as well. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 52 75 53 71 / 10 10 10 20 SSI 60 70 61 69 / 40 20 20 50 JAX 57 71 59 72 / 60 40 20 60 SGJ 60 71 63 72 / 80 70 40 70 GNV 55 70 58 75 / 70 40 20 50 OCF 58 70 60 75 / 80 60 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. && $$ $$