AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 718 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is forecast on Tuesday, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (60 percent) of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 A cold front remains stalled to our south over Central Florida this afternoon with a mid level shortwave currently over the central Gulf coast. These features are helping support isentropic lift and therefore cloud cover and rain showers across our region today despite being in the wake of the cold front. The shortwave will very slowly continue eastward while the front moves slowly southward towards South Florida on Tuesday. Some additional rain showers will be possible through Tuesday across the far southeastern portions of the area as a result, although no meaningful rainfall accumulation is expected. Breezy and quite dry conditions are expected across the FL Panhandle, W Big Bend, and into south Georgia on Tuesday afternoon as the gradient tightens in response to the aforementioned front and strong high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Despite recent rainfall, the combination of drought, wind, and low relative humidity on Tuesday afternoon will likely lead to elevated fire danger, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Please follow instructions from local officials and obey burn bans. Expect highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area with upper 60s to low 70s across the Southeast Big Bend where more cloud cover and rain chances are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The gradient will continue to tighten on Wednesday as a surface low develops along the stalled front over South Florida. This will lead to quite windy conditions on Wednesday, with the added bonus of the breezy easterly flow bringing moisture back into the area. Another shortwave is forecast to approach from the west, leading to an isolated to scattered chance for showers again on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Again, no significant rainfall accumulation is expected. While Wednesday is expected to be the windiest of the week, the gradient is forecast to remain quite tight and therefore winds quite breezy through at least Friday. Ridging is forecast to slide over the area in time for the weekend, wiping out any rain chances and also allowing temperatures to climb into the unseasonably warm mid to upper 80s once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Light rain will continue through tonight at TLH and VLD and maybe ECP. However, obs indicate the rain has been light enough to not restrict vsbys. Thus, have only made mention of 6SM vsbys in the rain. DHN and ABY will likely remain rain-free. Cigs could briefly lower as the rain ends at TLH and VLD early Tuesday morning, so have included a tempo for that possibility. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds quickly scour after sunrise. Gusty NE winds are likely through the day Tuesday with gusts around 25 kt being common. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The week ahead will be rough on the waters. The entire work week will feature strong to gale-force northeast and east winds. Strong northeasterly winds are expected across the northeastern Gulf in response to lowering pressure over South Florida today. Strong continental high pressure will bridge south across the waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, setting up near-gale and gale- force easterlies. Low pressure over South Florida will finally eject east across the Bahamas and into the Atlantic on Friday, causing winds to back around northeasterly and gradually weaken below Small Craft strength. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The big story this week will be repeated days of strong northeast to east winds from Tuesday through at least the end of the work week. At first on Tuesday, the influx of dry air over our Georgia and Alabama districts is likely to create a critical combination of wind and low humidity. The strongest winds will come on Wednesday when many districts will experience wind gusts near 40 mph, but a gradual wind shift from northeast to east will help raise humidity above critical thresholds. Winds will start to slowly trend downward on Friday in time for the return of above-normal temperatures. With such strong winds this week, widespread high dispersion values are expected each day from Tuesday through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 No significant rainfall accumulation is expected through the next 7 days. Recent rainfall was hydrologically insignificant and therefore not enough to improve ongoing drought conditions. See our latest Drought Information Statement at: weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 55 73 55 / 70 50 20 10 Panama City 68 56 76 57 / 70 40 10 10 Dothan 66 51 75 52 / 30 10 0 0 Albany 68 53 75 52 / 30 10 0 0 Valdosta 67 54 72 54 / 60 50 20 10 Cross City 77 54 69 57 / 50 80 50 20 Apalachicola 66 56 70 60 / 80 70 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ008>014-016-017-027-112-326-426. GA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ $$