AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the week. Winds and seas will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. - A prolonged period of strong easterly winds could result in minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores including Waveland and Shell Beach on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons during high tide cycles. This would result in upwards of 1 foot of water inundating low-lying roads near Shoreline Park and Venetian Isle. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Light stratiform rainfall continues to gradually sink southward offshore today in association with a decaying front intersecting with diffluence of the an upper-level trough situated along the northern Gulf coast. This trough will continue to move to the east leading to subsidence and drying out of our area through Tuesday. Light northerly winds will continue to allow drier air to advect southward with minimum dew point temperatures reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s. This in combination with clearing skies, will allow for more efficient radiational cooling and allow temperatures to fall into the 40s along and north of the I-10/12 corridor with 50s near the coast. Tuesday morning will be the coldest night of the forecast period before we gradually begin to warm up each night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Cloud cover returns by Wednesday into the latter part of the week as another jet streak associated with split flow with the subtropical jet aids lift and generates convection. Moisture will also gradually return as easterly flow establishes itself into the latter half of the week on the southern flank of a strong high pressure system over eastern CONUS. This will lead to more appreciable rain chances of 20- 50% Wed-Fri. Pressure falls associated with this jet streak and troughing will strengthen the pressure gradient with this high leading to intensification of easterly winds starting Wednesday as well with winds as high as 20 to 30 mph across parts of the southshore, especially St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes. This could prompt wind advisories needing to be issued for these areas in addition to the existing coastal flood threat this easterly fetch will present for east-facing shores starting Wednesday and continuing through Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will generally be in the 10-15 knot range during daylight hours and less than 10 knots overnight with the exception of KNEW where winds will remain in the 15-20 knot range through most of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 We will remain on the southern flank of a strong area of high pressure through much of the middle and late part of the week. This combined with weak upper troughing associated with the subtropical jet generating pressure falls over the Gulf will enhance the pressure gradient and create a stout easterly fetch across the northern Gulf through Friday. This will cause hazardous marine conditions for small crafts across the coastal waters with wind gusts nearing 30 to 35 knots, and wave heights of 8 to 12 feet in the outer waters and 3 to 6 feet in the protected waters. Minor coastal flooding will also be a concern with this persistent easterly fetch. East-facing shores such as Waveland and Shell Beach could see low-lying roads in Shoreline Park and Venetian Isles inundated on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons during high tide cycles. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ $$