AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 149 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek. High Risk of Rip Currents continue through midweek. High Surf of 7-12+ Feet at Local Beaches. Small Craft Advisory through Early This Morning, Gale Warning 8AM This Morning through Wednesday Night. Wind Advisory for Coastal NE FL and the St. Johns River Basin Today - Red Flag Warning for Inland Southeast GA Today - Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight - High Risk of Rip Currents - Critical fire weather conditions over inland GA - Isolated thunderstorms possible for portions of Northeast FL High pressure ridging will get reinforced from the north this morning, and combined with a coastal trough lingering just southeast of our region will ramp up the northeasterly wind event further for today and tonight. Along with the marine and coastal hazards remaining in place (including a high risk for rip currents), a Wind Advisory is in effect for both coastal areas and those surrounding the St. Johns River through tonight, as sustained winds in the 20- 30mph range with frequent gusts up to 40-45mph are expected during the daylight hours today. The high pressure surge from the north will drop the surface front already south of the area a bit further south, helping more sunshine to break out over inland GA where a Red Flag Warning is in effect today. The further south and east you go will also be higher one`s chances for showers will be as the day evolves, as ridging will help to shift any lingering showers/light rain over GA further south and east throughout the day today. An isolated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out towards coastal FL, but especially from around St. Johns county south. High temps will be expectedly cool in the 60s to near 70 across northeast FL with the onshore flow, with low to mid 70s across southeast GA. Tonight, winds are likely to subside enough to below advisory criteria, but remaining breezy, especially near the coast where the highest chances for ongoing showers will be. Lows will range generally in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday - Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida A robust surface high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard will work in concert with an inverted trough offshore to enhance the local gradient and continue windy conditions, especially along the coast Wednesday. The strong onshore flow will continue and an extension to the Wind Advisory through Wednesday will likely be necessary. Winds inland will be comparably less than along the coast but frequent gusts are likely to reach the 35-40 mph while coastal areas may reach top gusts near 45-50 mph. By Thursday, winds will be remain breezy to gusty but the gradients will slowly decompress as the strong surface high shifts off to the northeast allowing winds to ease up. Gloomy, windy conditions Wednesday will also be accompanied with rain, mainly across coastal NE FL as some low level moisture and convergent flow interact with lift offered by another passing shortwave moving through the broader cyclonic mid level flow. Though convergent flow will keep some shower activity along the coast through Thursday the departing wave and the backside subsidence should lean towards drier conditions for the rest of the area. Due the cloudy, gloomy, rainy conditions temperatures will be on the cool side again Wednesday with highs in the low 70s. Some warming is expected inland as skies break into filtered sunshine in the afternoon allowing highs to push into the mid/upper 70s while the cast remains in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy onshore winds Friday - Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend Another area of surface high pressure trekking across the Great Lakes and then off to the northeast US coast through the weekend. This will continue the onshore breeziness through Friday but winds will begin to gradually decline as upper ridging begins to build overhead through the weekend and gradients decompress. As heights rise aloft, it`ll kick off a warming trend over the weekend with inland temperatures rising back to the mid 80s for highs. Strong subsidence and a dry airmass aloft will keep conditions rain free through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Primarily MVFR conditions are continuing early this morning, with the exception of SSI. This trend is expected to continue throughout the day today in addition to periods of light rain showers, especially at northeast FL terminals. Onshore flow will also strengthen today, with sustained winds of 20 knots or greater expected as well as frequent gusts to 30 knots or higher. Showers look to generally subside this evening at least for a short period, which will allow for breaks in the MVFR ceilings at times, especially north and west of SGJ. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then continuing through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today through Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend. Rip Currents and Surf: An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the windiest conditions along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect Today for gusts 40-50 mph. Farther inland Red Flag conditions are expected as dry air, gusty winds, and high dispersion will align this afternoon. Elsewhere, higher humidity is expected. Stronger high pressure will build from the north Wednesday, increasing winds further on Wednesday allowing afternoon gusts to reach near 40 mph inland. Despite humidity values above critical, windy conditions will influence any existing or new ignition. Waves of light rain are expected through Wednesday but accumulating rainfall will generally be less than half an inch and focus mostly across northeast FL. Winds will finally begin to relax Friday into the weekend as temperatures trend warmer and humidity lower. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 51 70 50 / 20 0 10 20 SSI 70 60 67 59 / 50 10 40 30 JAX 70 58 70 58 / 70 20 60 40 SGJ 70 62 72 63 / 90 50 80 60 GNV 67 57 72 58 / 70 30 60 40 OCF 68 60 72 61 / 70 20 70 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-233-325-333-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135-149. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ $$