AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 217 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is forecast today, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle. Outdoor burning is discouraged. - Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday, when gusts of 35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect for tonight through Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Satellite imagery shows a southern stream shortwave making headway across the far eastern Gulf and the FL Peninsula. As it exits this morning, the bits of light rain currently over the Big Bend region will fade, and skies will clear out. Our winds will really pick up today. Pressure gradients will get squeezed and tighten as strong continental high pressure near the Great Lakes bridges south, while surface pressures lower over far South Florida and the Bahamas. Daytime wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be common today, with 35 mph expected in exposed and localized places. Guidance maintains the strongest 925 mb winds today near the Lower Suwannee and northern Nature Coast, perhaps flirting with gusts near the 40 mph Wind Advisory criteria over Dixie County. Further north and northwest, where the northeasterly winds will not include a trajectory over the Atlantic, the air mass will dry out. A ribbon of dewpoints in the 30s and possibly the upper 20s will nose in across Southwest Georgia and the FL Panhandle, setting up a critical fire weather combo of wind and RH in a narrow corridor. Given long-term drought impacts and the dry wind, fuels will have a short "memory" of recent rain. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Pressure gradient and wind potential will peak on Wednesday. Wind Advisories may eventually be needed. Multiple pieces of MOS guidance show sustained winds approaching 25 mph around late morning, as thermal mixing taps into stronger winds aloft. 925 mb winds in the morning around 35-40 knots suggests surface gusts of 35-40 mph should be expected. Meanwhile, the last in a series of southern stream shortwaves will pass by across the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula on Wednesday and Wed Night. It may draw some rain as far north as our FL and far south GA counties, where the forecast maintains low rain chances (20- 40 percent). Winds will still be elevated on Thursday but will start to trend downward. High pressure to the north will start to weaken, and low pressure over the Bahamas will start to lift out northeast into the open Atlantic. Friday through Monday will feature an amplifying and strengthening 500 mb ridge axis directly over the forecast area, extending from the Southwest Gulf to the Carolinas. This will squash any rain chances, and temperatures will rebound to above normal levels. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Lingering light rain showers around the VLD terminal will continue through the early morning hours until daybreak. These showers should have no impact on vsbys with VFR ceilings prevailing. During the day, it will be breezy with sustained northeasterly winds around 10- 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. The gusts are expected to lessen following 00z this evening. But, another windy day is expected for Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Rough conditions are expected on the Gulf waters until Friday. Through Wednesday evening, the pressure gradient will tighten between strong high pressure to the north and a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Bahamas. This will support strong to gale-force winds over the waters. Low pressure will finally start to move east on Thursday, and high pressure to the north will start to weaken. So gradual improvement is expected later Thursday through Friday. On Saturday, a bubble of high pressure over the coastal Carolinas will support gentle to moderate easterlies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Strong northeast to east winds will prevail through Thursday. The strongest gusts of 35-40 mph are expected on Wednesday, though today will be a close runner-up for strongest winds. Against the backdrop of windy conditions, today will also feature a narrow ribbon of drier air from Southwest Georgia into the Florida Panhandle. This will set up a critical combination of wind and low humidity within an area where we have issued a Red Flag Warning. From Friday through the weekend, northeast to easterly winds will slowly trend downward. A warming and drying trend will be underway from Friday through the weekend and strong upper level high pressure builds across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7 days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will persist or worsen. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 55 70 56 / 20 10 20 30 Panama City 76 57 73 58 / 10 10 20 40 Dothan 75 52 72 53 / 0 0 20 30 Albany 75 52 71 53 / 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 72 54 71 55 / 20 10 20 30 Cross City 69 57 74 58 / 50 20 40 30 Apalachicola 70 60 70 60 / 30 10 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ008>014-016-017-108-112- 326-426. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>159. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ751. && $$ $$