AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 429 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to wax and wane across the Keys coastal waters today and tonight. - Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage for Thursday. - Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions may return, lasting through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Individuals in the Florida Keys might have woken overnight to a light show taking place over Florida Bay. Confluence between a southward moving frontal boundary over Southern Florida and environmental southerly winds resulted in heavy showers, thunderstorms, and messy winds north of the island chain. Radar derived rainfall totals estimated over two inches of precipitation fell in three hours over portions of the bayside waters. Near the island chain, showers were not as organized. MRMS estimates placed over an inch of rainfall over central Key Largo. However, as of the early morning hours both the Lower and Middle Keys have been spared widespread rainfall. That may change today as the frontal boundary slowly sinks south. The problem is this pattern is very uncertain, even for the next 24 hours. A stalled front north of the Keys usually means widespread rainfall. However, the pressure gradient over the Florida Keys is weak. There is not a well defined pressure center in the Caribbean, and the high pressure system pushing the front south does not show signs of moving further south than Lake Erie. Instead, a secondary low developing along the front is probably what will cause the boundary to move away from the Keys. Put simply, there is not that much organized forcing in this pattern. Attempt to time where and when showers will develop are going to depend on local to mesoscale effects, which means model guidance can and will be wrong. Watch the radar, watch for any warnings, and keep an eye out for any lightning strikes. Low to medium confidence defines the forecast through Friday to Saturday. Shower coverage depends on the location and intensity of the frontal system and any adjacent low pressure centers. However, there are a few points of confidence. A secondary low developing east of the Florida Peninsula will support fresh to strong breezes north of the Outer Gulf waters, so there is high confidence in stronger than normal north swell in the western waters. The location of this low would also delay the onset of breezy to windy conditions over the Keys. Finally, the lower to mid level winds will keep directing moisture-laden air across the island chain. Dew points are forecast to linger near 70 for the rest of the week. Brace for waxing and waning showers for most of the work week, which given the drier conditions, is a relief. Once the frontal boundary moves away from the Keys, there is increasing confidence in a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions this weekend. Exactly when breezes will freshen is not certain, and numerical guidance indicates a nearly 20 mph spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles on Friday. In terms of showers, once the frontal system moves away from the coastline, more drier air will move towards the Keys. All we can say with confidence is that weather this week will be active. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. A frontal boundary stalled north of the Florida Keys will be responsible for light to variable breezes, disorganized winds, and scattered to numerous showers across the nearshore waters. Thunderstorm chances are expected to decrease Wednesday. Breezes are forecast to freshen late in the week to the weekend, but confidence is low due to uncertainty in where and when the frontal boundary moves south of the Keys. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Disorganized showers and thunderstorms will wax and wane near both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Near surface winds will slowly veer from southeasterlies to westerlies with occaisional gusts. Showers are slow moving, and could form longer periods of MVFR CIGs. There is not high enough confidence to include a TEMPO at this time, but areas around the terminals may have MVFR to IFR CIGs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 70 80 71 / 50 40 40 30 Marathon 80 71 81 72 / 50 40 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$