AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Key Messages: * There is a low to moderate (30-60%) chance of isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two starting tomorrow through Saturday. The best chances are Thursday and Friday. * Rain totals between tomorrow and Saturday should be lower than last weekend, with the most likely amounts ranging between 0.25 to 1 inch. Some areas may not see precipitation at all. * Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. * There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents tonight and tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A series of small mid-level shortwave disturbances are expected to move through the region starting tomorrow which will result in increased atmospheric instability and a low to medium chance (30- 60%) of showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms through Saturday. Early CAM guidance suggests that it will be mostly showery convection and more isolated to scattered than widespread, with a low 20-30% chance of showers forming on Wednesday. A thunderstorm or two is also possible, and the Storm Prediction Center does include Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk for both tomorrow and Thursday. At this time, nothing severe is expected. The strongest small shortwaves are expected on Thursday and Friday, which will produce the best rain chances of the week. Guidance continues to trend upwards on likelihood, increasing to a 40-60% chance for both afternoons. Again, early CAM reflectivity simulations seem to indicate mostly isolated showers, but a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible on these days as well, perhaps a little moreso than Wednesday. Rain chances decrease back to 20-40% on Saturday as the strongest of these shortwaves move offshore with a few lingering showers. Rain totals over the next few days are not expected to be as significant as they were last weekend, and rainfall is not expected to be as widespread. According to NBM DESI guidance, the most likely amount that areas of Deep South Texas might see between Wednesday and Saturday is between 0.25 and 1 inch. However, precipitation totals could range anywhere between 0.1 and 1.5 inches, with no excess rainfall expected. Due to the isolated to scattered nature of the expected convection, some areas may not receive any precipitation at all. Current NBM guidance suggests that conditions should dry out again Sunday through Tuesday of next week. However, long-range guidance (such as the GFS and the Euro) concur that a Pacific trough will move across the Central/Southern Plains between the beginning and middle of next week. This could potentially change the early week forecast as we move closer to that timeframe, depending on the strength and speed of the system. Temperatures should warm back to seasonal levels by tomorrow and continue to warm through early next week ahead of the next major trough expected sometime next week. This could bring another front to the area, which will be something to keep an eye on as the longer range forecast evolves. At this time, guidance suggests it would occur sometime after Tuesday if it does happen. However, Deep South Texas can expect increasingly windy conditions on Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through tonight and tomorrow. Remember, most drowning deaths in our area occur on days when the risk is moderate rather than high because surf looks a little more inviting to swim. Area beachgoers will want to remain vigilant. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected the rest of the afternoon with easterly winds. Overnight around 06z, ceilings will likely lower to MVFR and return to VFR by around 15z. A Prob30 has been added to the end of the TAF period due to the increased chance for showers tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Conditions should stay favorable through the weekend with light to medium winds and low to moderate seas. The exception would be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that happen to form offshore over the next few days. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific through from the West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 80 68 83 / 30 30 20 50 HARLINGEN 62 81 65 84 / 20 30 20 50 MCALLEN 66 83 69 85 / 20 40 30 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 82 68 84 / 10 40 40 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 76 72 78 / 20 30 20 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 80 68 82 / 20 30 20 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ $$