AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High rain chances continue through Thursday. - Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue through at least Thursday. - Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Upper level shortwave moving across the region brought some widespread rainfall to the region this morning. This wave will be exiting to the east shortly with subsidence behind it bringing an end to most of the rain. A few light showers will remain possible through tonight, but overall it looks like we`ll see mainly just a lot of clouds with breezy conditions thanks to the strong high pressure over the northeast states. Some more showers and possibly a thunderstorm will develop during Wednesday and move west southwest into the forecast area around midday and continue into the evening. Thursday looks similar as the high will drift out into the western Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge southwest into the southeast states with the breeze northeast to east winds persisting. More scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected, with the highest rain chances during the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday, winds will diminish some with drier air moving into the region limiting rain chances. Only some isolated afternoon and evening showers are expected over the interior and southwest Florida. From Saturday into early next week a warm and dry pattern returns, but the northeast to east flow will persist and we`ll see winds increase each evening for a few hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through Wednesday morning and could see some areas of IFR ceilings at times later tonight into Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will wind down later this afternoon and evening, then move back in from the east around midday Wednesday. Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts this afternoon into early tonight then diminish to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts later tonight into Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 High pressure building in north of the waters in the wake of the recent cold front will keep breezy winds in place through the rest of the week, with winds gusting to near gale force at times. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters into Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to improve Thursday night through the weekend, although easterly winds could occasional surge back to exercise caution or advisory levels at times during the evening into early morning hours each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 No humidity concerns for the next few days as deep moisture brings scattered to numerous showers to the region and a few storms through Thursday. Breezy northeast to east winds will produce high dispersion indices each afternoon through Thursday with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 77 66 81 / 20 70 40 40 FMY 66 80 67 83 / 20 60 30 40 GIF 65 75 65 80 / 30 80 50 60 SRQ 64 78 66 81 / 20 60 30 30 BKV 60 75 61 80 / 20 70 40 40 SPG 68 78 68 82 / 20 60 30 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ $$