AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Key Messages: * There is a low to moderate (30-60%) chance of isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two starting tomorrow through Saturday. The best chances are Thursday and Friday. * Rain totals between tomorrow and Saturday should be lower than last weekend, with the most likely amounts ranging between 0.25 to 1 inch. Some areas may not see precipitation at all. * Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. * There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents tonight and tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A series of small mid-level shortwave disturbances are expected to move through the region starting tomorrow which will result in increased atmospheric instability and a low to medium chance (30- 60%) of showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms through Saturday. Early CAM guidance suggests that it will be mostly showery convection and more isolated to scattered than widespread, with a low 20-30% chance of showers forming on Wednesday. A thunderstorm or two is also possible, and the Storm Prediction Center does include Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk for both tomorrow and Thursday. At this time, nothing severe is expected. The strongest small shortwaves are expected on Thursday and Friday, which will produce the best rain chances of the week. Guidance continues to trend upwards on likelihood, increasing to a 40-60% chance for both afternoons. Again, early CAM reflectivity simulations seem to indicate mostly isolated showers, but a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible on these days as well, perhaps a little moreso than Wednesday. Rain chances decrease back to 20-40% on Saturday as the strongest of these shortwaves move offshore with a few lingering showers. Rain totals over the next few days are not expected to be as significant as they were last weekend, and rainfall is not expected to be as widespread. According to NBM DESI guidance, the most likely amount that areas of Deep South Texas might see between Wednesday and Saturday is between 0.25 and 1 inch. However, precipitation totals could range anywhere between 0.1 and 1.5 inches, with no excess rainfall expected. Due to the isolated to scattered nature of the expected convection, some areas may not receive any precipitation at all. Current NBM guidance suggests that conditions should dry out again Sunday through Tuesday of next week. However, long-range guidance (such as the GFS and the Euro) concur that a Pacific trough will move across the Central/Southern Plains between the beginning and middle of next week. This could potentially change the early week forecast as we move closer to that timeframe, depending on the strength and speed of the system. Temperatures should warm back to seasonal levels by tomorrow and continue to warm through early next week ahead of the next major trough expected sometime next week. This could bring another front to the area, which will be something to keep an eye on as the longer range forecast evolves. At this time, guidance suggests it would occur sometime after Tuesday if it does happen. However, Deep South Texas can expect increasingly windy conditions on Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through tonight and tomorrow. Remember, most drowning deaths in our area occur on days when the risk is moderate rather than high because surf looks a little more inviting to swim. Area beachgoers will want to remain vigilant. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Light east winds with cloud decks between 3500 to 6000 feet prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Generally VFR conditions are expected through late evening. Ceilings will likely lower later tonight, after 06Z. There is a moderate (30 to 50 percent) chance of MVFR ceilings overnight into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings may linger across the Rio Grande Valley in the afternoon, especially at MFE. Will include PROB30s for periods of SHRA`s and lower ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Conditions should stay favorable through the weekend with light to medium winds and low to moderate seas. The exception would be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that happen to form offshore over the next few days. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific through from the West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 79 69 83 / 30 30 20 40 HARLINGEN 62 81 64 84 / 20 30 20 40 MCALLEN 66 83 69 85 / 20 40 30 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 81 68 84 / 10 40 30 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 76 71 77 / 20 30 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 79 68 81 / 20 30 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ $$