AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 906 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 857 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is forecast today, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8pm EDT / 7pm CDT. Outdoor burning is discouraged. - Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday over our southeastern-most counties, with a medium (40-70%) chance of wind advisory level gusts. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect for tonight through Wednesday night. - Low water from persistent offshore flow will lead to moderate navigational hazards around the times of low tide tonight and Wednesday night for coastal areas from the St. Marks river to the Suwannee river. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A few tweaks were made to tonight`s forecast: -decreased rain chances over the waters -adjusted temperatures & dew points based on observations. The dew points were the most notable change as there is a NE-SW ribbon of relatively low Td`s stretching roughly from Fitzgerald to Panama City. This swath matches up well with satellite- derived Precipitable Water around 0.4". A mix of clouds and elevated winds should keep overnight lows from bottoming out too much despite a dry airmass in place. The warmest temperatures are expected over the SE FL Big Bend where thicker clouds should persist. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Surface high pressure currently situated over the Upper Midwest slides ESE and into the Northeast on Wednesday. This will help enhance the pressure gradient between this feature and the cold front to our south, making for what will likely be the windiest day of this period on Wednesday. Winds will be highest in our southeastern-most counties south of I-10 and near the I-75 corridor where gusts may exceed 35mph. Elsewhere, inland wind gusts around 25- 30mph is more likely. For our marine zones, a gale warning for frequent gale force gusts is in effect starting Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday morning. Minimum RH values on Wednesday increase slightly, helping limit fire weather concerns somewhat compared to today. Still, high winds and antecedent drought/dry fuels will mean that any fires that initiate may spread quickly despite conditions being unlikely to meet red flag criteria. Please follow instructions from local officials and obey any burn bans that in effect. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Winds begin to taper off on Thursday but still remain breezy with frequent inland gusts of 20-25mph possible during the day. Temperatures start an upward trend on Thursday, with daytime highs reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. By the weekend, ridging establishes overtop the region driving daytime high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s, which will be ~5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures will be closer to average in the mid-50s. With no significant rainfall anticipated through the end of the forecast period, drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 The main change to the inherited TAFs from the 18Z package was add a PROB30 group at TLH/VLD for -SHRA from 18-24Z. A slight slackening of easterly winds tonight become very gusty starting mid to late tmrw morning. Highest gusts expected across the eastern terminals. Otherwise, VFR conds are fcst. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Rough conditions are expected on the Gulf waters until Friday. The pressure gradient will tighten between strong high pressure to the north and a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Bahamas through Wednesday evening. This will support gale-force wind gusts over the waters starting Wednesday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from late tonight through Wednesday night for marine zones outside the zone from the Okaloosa/Walton county line to Mexico Beach out to 20nm. Low pressure will finally start to move east on Thursday, and high pressure to the north will start to weaken. So gradual improvement is expected later Thursday through Friday. On Saturday, a bubble of high pressure over the coastal Carolinas will support gentle to moderate easterlies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A red flag warning continues for a corridor from Southwest Georgia into the Florida Panhandle where critically low RH is overlapping with elevated easterly/northeasterly transport winds and very high dispersions. Easterly winds will be even higher on Wednesday, however minimum RHs will likely not be as low as today. Still, strong winds alongside extremely dry fuels from antecedent drought conditions will yield elevated fire concerns on Wednesday even though the chances for a Red Flag criteria being met are low at this point. Winds begin a downtrend on Thursday, with a warming and drying trend following as upper level high pressure settles into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7 days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will persist or worsen && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 56 74 55 78 / 0 20 10 10 Panama City 58 76 57 78 / 0 20 20 0 Dothan 53 73 51 76 / 0 10 10 0 Albany 53 73 50 76 / 0 10 10 0 Valdosta 55 73 53 77 / 0 20 20 10 Cross City 58 73 58 78 / 10 40 20 20 Apalachicola 60 72 59 74 / 0 30 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ751. && $$ $$