AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the week. Winds and seas will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. - Minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores including Waveland and Shell Beach is expected on Wednesday afternoon between Noon and 8PM. This could result in upwards of 1 foot of water inundating low-lying roads near Shoreline Park and Venetian Isle. Additional minor coastal flooding could occur on Thursday afternoon, but confidence is lower in the tidal forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 After starting out on the chillier side with temps in the low 40s in parts of the Florida Parishes and southern MS, we`ve quickly warmed up into the 70s. Highs will be near average in the mid to upper 70s as strong diurnally driven warming and fair skies prevail. Min RH values are well into the upper 20s and 30s across the area indicating quite dry conditions for our area, but fortunately winds are just weak enough to mitigate more critical fire weather conditions. The shortwave mid-upper ridge overhead will quickly depart, and another subtropical jet streak will advance across the Gulf tonight into Wednesday. This will transport mid- upper moisture and cloud cover from Texas over the northern Gulf coast into Wednesday which will temper some of the more strongly diurnal temperature fluctuations we`ve seen today. Additionally, the pressure gradient will tighten on Wednesday along the southern flank of the strong eastern CONUS surface high as weak pressure falls occur in the southeast Gulf. This will strengthen the easterly fetch into the northern Gulf coast with a slightly more southerly component to the wind direction allowing gradual moistening of the area. Winds will increase especially for the southshore with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 The key difference in the forecast from prior days is that model guidance has shifted the tightest part of the pressure gradient axis on the southern flank of the surface high farther offshore. This affects multiple variables in the forecast leading to lowering of PoPs and weakening of peak winds midweek into the weekend. The predominant mode of convection will be induced by afternoon heating along the coastal areas if any at all as the forecast wholesale is much drier than prior days for the latter half of the week. By the weekend, a large upper ridge will be dominating much of the central and eastern CONUS as a train of larger troughs approach the west coast and lead us into a more active pattern for next week. This will also mean high temperatures warm back above average into the 80s once again. Latest ensemble guidance has continued to support a deepening trough across the western CONUS to start next week with most members indicating this trough will lift through the central plains and midwest. If this were to transpire, the main forcing and environment favorable for severe weather would remain well to our north and west with the only precipitation coming from leftover convection along a decaying front. Something to watch, but no clear indication of any severe weather potential for our area at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions through this cycle. Again the main story through the aviation forecast period will be the persistent easterly flow. Terminals along the coast will likely hang on to moderate easterly flow with some gusts in excess of 20 knots. Inland, a bit weaker, but some gusts 15-20kt will be possible during peak afternoon heating before the atmosphere decouples allowing winds to relax around or shortly after sunset. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A strong area of high pressure positioned across the eastern U.S. will provide a persistent easterly fetch across the coastal waters through the entire week. This will keep marine weather conditions hazardous for inexperienced mariners and operators of small crafts through much of the week and small craft headlines are already in effect. The highest winds and seas are likely to be on Wednesday and Thursday where sustained winds will be 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, especially east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Wave heights in the unprotected open waters will also approach 7 to 10 feet during the peak of these winds. Hazardous marine conditions are likely to persist through Thursday before gradually relaxing on Friday and into the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. While the strongest part of the easterly fetch has trended farther offshore, PETSS guidance still continues to support minor coastal flooding across east-facing shores of St. Bernard, eastern Orleans, southeast St. Tammany, and Hancock County on Wednesday afternoon. We will see how this tidal forecast verifies and this will provide greater confidence on whether coastal flood headlines will be needed also on Thursday afternoon. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ $$