AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is forecast today in counties along and north of U.S. 82 from Albany to Tifton. A Red Flag Warning is in effect. Outdoor burning is discouraged areawide due to strong winds today. - Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday. The strongest winds will be today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect. - Low water from persistent offshore flow will lead to moderate navigational hazards around the times of low tide tonight for coastal areas from the St. Marks river to the Suwannee river. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Wind will be the main story today. A tight pressure gradient is in place, squeezed between strong continental high pressure over the Northeast U.S. and a frontal wave near the southern tip of Florida. Easterly 925 mb winds at sunrise this morning are forecast to be near 35 knots. So surface gusts of 35 mph can be expected once thermal mixing deepens a few hours after sunrise. The consensus of MOS guidance has lowered sustained winds a touch, down into the 17- 20 knot range today. These values are just below Wind Advisory criteria, so no headlines are planned explicitly for wind. Nonetheless, the wind will be quite noticeable and prominent today. However, dry air will be hanging on north of the U.S. 82 corridor, or generally north of Albany and Tifton. Where the relative humidity is forecast to be near 25 percent or less this afternoon, we have issued a Red Flag Warning (RFW) given overlap with windy conditions. Regardless of who does and does not have a RFW, outdoor burning is discouraged on such a windy day. Further south, mainly over our FL counties, the air mass will be moistening today as Atlantic-influenced air spreads west. Meanwhile, some weak isentropic ascent (characterized by NE surface winds veering to SE aloft) may be enough late today and tonight to squeeze out a few showers, sprinkles, or light rain. Regional radars already show light return across northeast and north-central Florida, so that will generally be spreading west today and tonight. QPF is disappointingly low, with nothing more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Winds will still be quite gusty on Thursday, but wind speeds will start a slow downward trend as high pressure to the north weakens, and as low pressure over South Florida decidedly exits northeast through the Bahamas and into the open Atlantic. Isentropic ascent will fade, and so will the chance of light rain. Starting Friday, a 500 mb ridge axis will amplify and strengthen from the Southwest Gulf to the Carolinas, becoming strong over the weekend. By next Tuesday, the ridge axis will have only budged as far east as the northern FL Peninsula. So the accompanying presence of large-scale subsidence along with warm, dry air aloft will readily cap the atmosphere and eliminate any chance of rain. A warm air mass will solidify beneath the 500 mb ridge, so our temperatures will rise well above normal. Normal highs this time of year are mainly in the upper 70s. In contrast, we will be looking at highs reaching the mid 80s from Saturday on, with a few upper 80s mixed in. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Easterly- northeasterly winds will be sustained around 15kts in the late morning and gusting up to 25 kts in the afternoon. The gusts above 20 kts will likely continue past the end of this TAF cycle. There is a slight chance for showers to move in from the east affecting the TLH and ECP terminals this afternoon and into the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Northeast to east winds will peak this afternoon and evening near gale force for most Gulf waters. Winds will start to trend downward on Thursday, but it will take until Friday morning for winds to decrease below small craft strength. Easterly breezes will prevail this weekend, a direction that will favor fresh wind surges each night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Strong northeast to east winds are expected today, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range areawide. In addition, counties along and north of U.S. 82 from Albany to Tifton will see humidity bottom out below 30 percent this afternoon. Given dry and drought-stressed fuels, a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon. Further south over Florida districts, humidity will be higher, and cloud cover will be thicker. Moving past today, wind speeds will start to trend down on Thursday. Friday and Saturday will have temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above normal, with that warm dry air mass persisting into early next week. High dispersion will be a concern each day through this weekend over inland districts. Little if any rain is expected for the next 7 days, limited to just a few sprinkles or light rain showers over Florida districts today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7 days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will worsen. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 54 78 55 / 30 20 10 0 Panama City 78 57 79 58 / 20 30 0 0 Dothan 77 51 76 52 / 10 20 0 0 Albany 77 51 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 75 53 77 54 / 10 20 10 0 Cross City 71 56 78 56 / 40 20 10 0 Apalachicola 74 59 75 61 / 30 30 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ this morning through late tonight for FLZ108-114. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125>131. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Gale Warning from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ751. && $$ $$