AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 609 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High Surf Advisory issued for the beaches of Georgetown County SC and New Hanover County NC. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of northeast SC today. Cool, dry, and breezy conditions will continue today. Updated aviation discussion with 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated fire weather conditions continue today. 2) Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the end of the work-week with leftover NE-E swell continuing into Sat. 3) Hazardous surf conditions today thru Thu followed by a slow subsiding trend Fri into the weekend. 4) Below normal temperatures through Thursday night. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Elevated fire weather conditions continue today. Very dry air exists over the Carolinas, sourced from high pressure over the northeastern US. PW values are forecast to drop to around the climatological minimum for this data at 0.22". An increased pressure gradient between strong high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary well offshore will maintain elevated winds. Gusts this afternoon will peak near 20-25 mph. This, combined with minimum RH in the mid 20%s to around 30% will lead to increased fire danger through early this evening. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for most of northeast South Carolina, excluding coastal areas where onshore flow will keep minimum RH in the low to mid 30%s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the end of the work-week with leftover NE-E swell continuing into Sat. See Marine Section below for details. KEY MESSAGE 3... Hazardous surf conditions today thru Thu followed by a slow subsiding trend Fri into the weekend. Prolonged and strong northeast winds will lead to elevated surf conditions along the coasts of both Southeast NC and Northeast SC. Wave/swell direction will remain from the NE thru ENE, affecting all area beaches. Portions of the ILM CWA Beaches will likely observe 6+ foot surf conditions, (head high plus), on a consistent basis today and continuing into much of Thu. Particularly the E to ESE facing beaches of Georgetown County SC and New Hanover County NC. This may need to be expanded into Horry County SC and/or Pender County NC based on buoy obs, lifeguard and surf reports later today. Six+ foot surf on a consistent basis will require the issuance of a High Surf Advisory which will run from 6am Wed thru 8 pm Thu for NH and G Counties for the time being. The large surf conditions will result in elevated rip current risk today thru Sat across all beaches, with high rip risk mainly occurring along E-SE facing beaches. In addition, strong north to south longshore currents will also occur along those same E/SE facing beaches due to the strong and gusty NE winds thru Thu. KEY MESSAGE 4... Below normal temperatures through Thursday night. Unseasonably cool airmass remains in place due to high pressure to the north through tomorrow night. The coldest temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the upper 30s inland. Elevated winds around 10 mph will maintain low level mixing. Despite the cold temperatures, winds will be too high to consider the potential for frost. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. Northeasterly winds will gust up to 25 knots today, potentially higher near the coast. A surface trough approaching the coast could bring a brief period of MVFR tonight. Extended Forecast... Generally VFR through the end of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A wedge of high pressure has moved into the Carolinas. The gradient between high pressure over the interior of the region and a lingering frontal boundary offshore will continue to produce strong winds offshore through Thursday. Winds will peak this morning with gusts up to 40 knots possible. Gale conditions will continue through tonight. Probabilities hint at gusts becoming less frequent late tonight into Thursday, but cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters should produce an effective mixing environment. By late this morning, seas are expected to build up to 6-9 feet with little change anticipated through early Thursday. Thursday through Sunday night...Thursday thru Friday will feature the center of the expansive sub 1040mb high moving offshore from the NE States. This will result in a slow weakening of the wedge of high pressure across the Carolinas, especially during Fri which in turn will result in the slow relaxation of the sfc pg across the area waters. Looking at strong SCA conditions, from both winds and seas, Thu thru Thu night...and the SCA during Fri into Fri night, mainly from the seas given the long NE fetch from which the seas have been building upon. SCA conditions, from leftover seas, should cease during Fri night, or daybreak Sat the latest. This will leave a favorable boating weekend as the center of high pressure affects the local waters Sat with light winds. Backdoor cold front Sun should remain just north of the area waters at its most southern point late Sun. Seas still remain elevated Sat but do further subside going into Sun, and mainly comprised of an ENE-E swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ $$