AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday. The strongest winds will be today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect. - Dry conditions will continue through the next 7 to 10 days. Fire concerns will remain elevated and drought improvements are not forecast. Use extreme caution with any activities involving fire and please follow local officials advice on any burn bans. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Strong surface high pressure will remain entrenched across the southeast US and northern Gulf Coast. This surface high will encourage elevated/strong easterly flow across the forecast area (with the strongest winds across our Gulf waters). Mostly dry conditions will prevail again late this afternoon and evening but a few weak showers could develop with heating of the day. These showers will also be aided by a weak shortwave trough slowly translates east into the evening. Thursday will bring similar conditions to this afternoon but overall, winds will be slightly lower, and warmer temperatures are expected with drier air aloft filtering in. The one point of uncertainty tomorrow is with this drier air. Some of the more overzealous guidance does show the potential for us to be much drier (relative humidity wise) than current forecast, especially across western Florida Big Bend and Panhandle where we have around a 10 to 20% chance that humidities drop to around 25%. Did blend some of this drier guidance into our forecast to reflect this potential. Given the recent dry conditions, this could bring locally elevated fire danger tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Upper level flow will be either northwesterly or fairly stagnant as an upper level ridge rebuilds across the northern Gulf. Model guidance is excellent agreement on this pattern and it`s a high confidence forecast in near-zero rainfall amounts into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will generally be above average through the period with highs in the mid 80s with upper 80s to near 90s possible by the middle of next week. These conditions, when combined with exceptional drought, will likely lead to continued long term fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will also continue. There is a low chance for light showers for TLH and ECP terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Northeast to east winds will peak this afternoon and evening near gale force for most Gulf waters. Winds will start to trend downward on Thursday, but it will take until Friday morning for winds to decrease below small craft strength, especially in offshore waters. Easterly breezes will prevail this weekend, a direction that will favor fresh wind surges each night to at least cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 High dispersions along with warm and dry afternoons are expected through the next few days. While critical relative humidities are generally not expected, there remains about a 10 to 20% of relative humidities dropping to around 25 to 30% in some areas. For Thursday, this probability is greatest generally west of the Flint/Apalachicola River. On Friday there is a 10-20% of relative humidities dropping to around 25% across the entire region. Elevated winds around 10 to 15 mph are expected on Thursday but then should drop to around 5 to 10 mph for Friday and the upcoming weekend. These conditions will keep elevated fire danger in place through the weekend. No wetting rains are expected for at least the next 7 to 10 days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7 days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will worsen. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 78 56 82 / 20 10 0 0 Panama City 58 79 58 81 / 20 10 0 0 Dothan 53 76 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 51 76 51 80 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 54 77 54 81 / 10 10 0 0 Cross City 58 78 56 83 / 30 20 0 0 Apalachicola 60 75 61 76 / 20 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-114. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125>131. AL...None. GM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752- 755-765-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ751. && $$ $$