HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-041800- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST WED AUG 4 2004 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.... ...WATCHES... AS OF 1100 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WAS DISCONTINUED. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALTHOUGH NO SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE READY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM AST...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 25 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF IT CAN MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWEST AND REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSES WELL SOUTH OF ST CROIX TONIGHT AND AS THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO'S SOUTH COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR WEST PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAPID RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN SQUALLS AND GUSTS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ST CROIX AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALSO WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD AFFECT THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SURF AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SEAS MAY LIKELY REACH 6 TO 8 FEET AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WATERS. THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN...PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU RM    This data is from the IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network) 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042037 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 ALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF CONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE EAST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 37.9N 67.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 42.0N 56.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 44.6N 47.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/1800Z 45.4N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$