LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OUR WEBSITE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) UNDER "NEWS OF THE DAY" FOR MORE INFORMATION. STORM SURVEYS MAY NOT BE FINALIZED UNTIL LATER ON THIS WEEK...BUT TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN IN/OH. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND IT ALL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DUE TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED QUITE WARM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOST READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT NE...REACHING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HEAD NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD IN SHOWING MINIMAL POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SO HAVE ONLY SLGHT CHC. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT IDEA OF DRY LOW LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL FURTHER INHIBIT PRECIP CHANCES. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK STILL HAS OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD STORM CHANCES. INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO +17 OR +18 C TODAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT LOW 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WILL END POPS IN THE NW IN THE EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR NE NC COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS SLGHT CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S. THE BOUNDARY MOVE S INTO CAROLINAS THURS WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. MAY HAVE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO WEDGE INTO THE REGION THURS NIGHT. MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS AS E-NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL SLOW TO BRING PRECIP INTO WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. EASTERN SHORE AREAS WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. THIS SETS UP A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM ARND 40 IVOF SBY TO LOW 50S SE COUNTIES. FRI APPEARS TO BE A COOL DAY WITH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS AS MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVERRUNS THE COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS 55-65. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BEST WAA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING MOVE ACROSS WV AND PA...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...HIGHER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE THAN STRENGTHENS AND ANCHORS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S INLAND...LOW 70S EASTERN SHORE AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER. MAXIMA SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT COULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S. THE ONLY POPS WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS IN. UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVRNGT THRU WED WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY SW WIND DURING THE AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD MVFR CIGS ARND 12Z WED. WILL HAVE JUST SCT CU FOR WED AFTN INTO ERLY WED EVENG IN CASE ANY ISLTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP. OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG. NEXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO PCPN WILL BE ON FRI. && .MARINE... SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE MARINE AREA INTO AT LEAST ERLY THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES SLIDES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES THRU THIS AFTN/EVENG FOR THE CURRITUCK SND AND CHES BAY...AND THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS. COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU MORNG WITH ISLTD OR WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NNE THU...AND THEN DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST FRI...ALLOWING FOR ONSHR FLO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. HI PRES RE-BLDS OFF THE SE CST LATE IN THE WKND AND ERLY NEXT WK. && .CLIMATE... WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES. FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED BELOW FOLLOWED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE 1ST DATE WITH 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES: RECORD HIGHS FOR WED 4/20: RIC...95 IN 1985 ORF...91 IN 1941 SBY...92 IN 1985 ECG...93 IN 1985 90-DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY: AVG 1ST DATE EARLIEST LATEST RICHMOND......MAY 11TH......MAR 17TH (1945)....JULY 2ND (1972) NORFOLK.......MAY 19TH......MAR 23RD (1907)....JULY 2ND (1972) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM $$