LSRAKQ) AND ALSO WITHIN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSAKQ). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FA IN BTWN SYSTMS FRI AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMP FORECAST PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE UNDER A PT SUNNY SKY. DRY WITH HIGHS L-M40S EXCEPT NR 50 SERN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ON GROUND. FIRST (AND STRONGEST) S/W PROGGED TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION FRI NIGHT THEN OFF THE COAST SAT. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS DIFFER A BIT...BUT WILL CARRY A 40 POP FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING...MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SERN COASTAL AREAS WHERE IT STAYS RAIN. QPF THUS ANY SNOW ACCUMS XPCTD TO BE LIGHT. LOWS M20S NW TO M-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING S/W`S CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTM BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAKER S/W MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION (WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS WITH THAT SYSTM) BUT EXPECT A COLD AND DRY WEEKEND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY AND A BIT WARMER MON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW. HIGHS 40-45. SOME LIGHT PCPN AHEAD OF APPRCHG WARM FRONT LATE MON NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 30S. MILDER TUE WITH CHC SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HIGHS 55-60. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. DRY AND MILD WED. HIGHS 50-60. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CURRENTLY JUST RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. STILL SEEING IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGHOUT AND VSBYS VARYING FROM 1 TO 5 SM. IN GENERAL...EVEN AS PRECIP BECOMES LIGHTER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CIGS...IFR LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS TO 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION AFTER 20Z...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE PRECIP FOR A FEW HRS. PTYPE COULD SWITCH TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC/KSBY FROM 21Z INTO THE EVENING HRS. IMPROVING CONDS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. && .MARINE... SCAS FOR THE RIVERS...GALES FOR THE OCN/BAY/SOUND. DVLPMNT OF SFC LO PRES CONTS ON THE CSTL PLAIN IN ERN NC. THE LO WILL BE TRACKING W OF HSE...TO NR ECG...THEN JUST E OF THE DELMARVA THROUGH TDA. SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY INCRSG NOW FM S TO N THROUGH THE CSTL WTRS AS THE LO APPROACHES FM THE SSW. MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO DIRECTION AND SPEEDS BASED ON TRENDS AND NEW GUID WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE LO WILL BE TRACKING CLOSER TO/OVR A PORTION OF THE ATLC WTRS TDA. WILL LIKELY KEEP MNLY N WNDS ON THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT BECOME SSW OVR AT LEAST THE SRN PORTION OF THE OCN WTRS THIS MRNG...CONTG INTO THIS AFTN BEFORE SWINGING TO THE NW IN IN THE WAKE OF THE STM. AFT INITIAL INCRS IN SPEEDS TO HI END SCA...LO END GALE GUSTS OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS INTO/THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...XPCG A LULL IN SPEEDS AS THE SFC LO TRACKS INVOF FA WTRS...ESP LATE MRNG INTO MID AFTN. A SURGE/INCRS IN SPEEDS XPCD IN THE WAKE OF THE STM AS IT DEPARTS THIS EVE INTO TNGT...W/ HI END SCAS AND PTNTL LO END GALES. SCAS WILL LIKELY REPLACE GALES AFT FIRST PART OF TNGT (ALBEIT FOR A FEW HRS - FOR WINDS...THOUGH W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT...SCAS ON THE OCN LIKELY TO LINGER (WELL) INTO FRI). WNDS BECOME SWLY FRI AHD OF NEXT APPROACHING SFC LO PRES FM THE W. THAT SYS CROSSES THE WTRS FRI NGT...THEN IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER ROUND OF INCRSD NW WNDS XPCD (AND HI PROB FOR SCAS). SEAS ON THE OCN WILL REACH 10-13 FT THIS MRNG...THEN BE VERY SLO TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TNGT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADSY FOR OCEAN SIDE MINOR FLOODING FOR WORCESTER MD DOWN TO ACCOMACK VA. TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE THAN GUIDANCE PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS VERIFYING ABOUT 5-10 KT LESS THAN EXPECTED. STILL THINK THE DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ON THE ERN SHORE AS WINDS ARE NOW GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT. FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED THE ADSY TO THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE SINCE IT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED ANOTHER ONE FOR THE EVENING CYCLE. AREAS OF THE LOWER BAY ARE SEEING DEPARTURES TO AROUND 1.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THERE AS SFC LOW IS CLOSE BY. THUS...WATER LEVELS LOOK TO FALL ABOUT 0.5 FT SHORT OF FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024- 025. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048- 049-060>071-079>083-087-088. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ072>078. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD $$