PNSLIX) HAS A NICE SUMMARY OF THIS PAST YEAR/S MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER EVENTS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL BE ENDING THE
YEAR ON A RELATIVELY COLD NOTE WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY KEEP NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM EVEN REACHING 50 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST EVEN INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SOME...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA
WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST IT WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS A
TRAILING TROUGH SHIFTS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HAVE KEPT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL ON SATURDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW
RACES ACROSS LA AND CENTRAL MS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOWER LEVELS WARM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SRH
WILL RANGE FROM 200-300M2/S2...MAINLY FROM SPEED SHEAR. A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP. A 12KFT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE TO HIGH FOR AN APPRECIABLE HAIL
THREAT. SO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WILL BE WITH THE TORNADO OR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. TIME FRAME IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION  MARK AT THIS TIME.
GFS SUGGESTS SATURDAY MORNING VS THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. THAT DISPARITY CARRIES OVER INTO
SUNDAY WHEN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA. DECIDED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2 FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA
ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 13Z.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK
RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3000 FEET AT KMSY AND KHUM BEFORE 13Z.  32

MARINE...

NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWS STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CLOSER TO
SHORE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  THE WIND
FIELD WILL VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS
INCREASES.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.  AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
AREA...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLICE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 15 KNOTS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS BACK TO THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  33  53  46 /   0  10  20  60
BTR  51  36  55  48 /   0  10  30  60
ASD  52  36  58  50 /   0  10  20  60
MSY  52  41  57  55 /   0  10  20  60
GPT  52  39  57  50 /   0  10  20  60
PQL  52  39  60  48 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

$$