LSRAKQ). Storm survey team is headed out and will likely not get to every location today. PNS`s on the storms will be issued when completed. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Starting out mainly SKC tonight. A weak/quick moving trough sfc-aloft approaches/crosses the local area late tonight-Sat morning bringing increasing cloudiness and lo prob for -RA. Given quick movement and limited moisture (crossing the mtns)...holding PoPs to aob 20-30% mainly nrn half of the FA. Clearing out midday/afternoon Sat as a strong push of hi pres builds into the local area from the W. Highs Sat from the l60s N to the u60s SE. Cool/dry wx Sat night under SKC...w/ lows in the 40s except 50s along the coast. Strong WSW flow aloft Sun will lead to increased cloudiness. Consensus of the models suggests that any -RA dissipates exiting the mtns. Will have partly sunny...becoming mostly cloudy W...partly sunny E on Sun. Keeping PoPs aob 14% attm. Highs Sun in the l-m60s N and W to the l70s in NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 12 PM EDT Thursday... Cool and quiet conditions are expected to start the medium/long range forecast as high pressure at the surface will move east of the area on seasonally strong zonal winds aloft. As the surface high moves away, winds will become increasingly southerly Sunday night into Monday morning which will allow moisture to return to the region with dewpoints increasing through the day Monday into the mid 60s. An approaching trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will serve to increase the chance for showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder for Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Some timing differences remain among the models as to the timing of the actual cold frontal passage with the GFS and GEM bringing the front through shortly after sunset on Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower - closer to sunrise Tuesday morning. Went with a blend but leaned toward the faster timing of the GFS/GEM for frontal passage. The chance for thunder will come to an end after the front clears any one spot, but it appears that post-frontal showers will continue across the area for Tuesday into early Wednesday before high pressure builds into the region once again to close out the week. High temperatures on Monday will feel quite warm after a cool weekend with low 70s in the northwest ranging into the lower 80s across the southeast. Overnight lows Monday into Tuesday will depend on the eventual placement of the cold front but will generally range from the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be held in check with clouds and showers around, lower 60s across the north and some low 70s to the south. Thereafter, highs in the 60s to low 70s with lows dropping back into the 40s inland to upper 50s near the water. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions continue this aftrn as high pressure builds into the region. The next system moves quickly east across the nrn Mid Atlntc states Sat morning. Models show just enuf moisture for a few light shwrs across the lwr md ern shore btwn 09Z-15Z so went with a VCSH there. Otw, just SCT-BKN mid level cloud deck expected Sat. OUTLOOK... The next cold front will approach from the NW early next week... possibly resulting in lower CIGS and -RA. && .MARINE... As of 715 AM EDT Friday... Winds continue to diminish over the waters this morning, and have stepped Storm Warnings back to Small Craft Advisories (Rivers) and Gale Warnings for all waters. Previous discussion... Michael is now off just to the ENE of the lower Bay. Rapid pressure rises and strong gradient which has resulted in strong gusts to storm force (and even a few Hurricane Force gusts over elevated terminals) is relaxing slightly this morning. The strongest wind gusts (to 50 to 60 kt) over the Bay and coastal waters will be roughly between now and about 10Z, with conditions gradually improving thereafter. Breezy NW winds will linger through the day Friday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Winds diminish below SCA tonight over the Bay and rivers tonight, but could approach SCA thresholds again for a short time Saturday morning with a secondary CAA surge. Winds then drop off quickly with cool high pressure building over the region Sat night through early Monday. Another cold front drops across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Going forecast timing has not been modified significantly. && .HYDROLOGY... Numerous river warnings on the Nottoway, Meherrin and Appomattox basins. Flood warnings will persist through the weekend and into early next week in the Meherrin Basin. See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 700 AM EDT Friday... Tidal anomalies now declining, but water levels remain elevated for the current high tide cycle across the bay and ocean. && .CLIMATE... Record rainfall for Oct 11th at SBY - 6.56". Also, there were tipping (pcpn) bucket errors at RIC after 02Z/12 so adjusted initial pcpn total from climate report for Oct 11th to MM. Will need to look at other sites near that location later today to possibly get a total for the day. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ084-086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR $$