AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 320 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING THE DAY SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WILL SEE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE SFC HIGH ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BUFFER ACROSS OUR AREA TO KEEP PRECIP AWAY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... 65-70 OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL LOCALES TO 70-75 WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (MAINLY WEST OF I-95). THE RETREATING SFC HIGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUT OF EASTERN VA/NE NC...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL. MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. THE UPR RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MIDWEST. WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREAD TO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OUR CWA COMES UNDER A FAVORABLE AREA OF VERTICAL ASCENT ON SATURDAY WITH PW`S INCREASING TO OVER 1.50". WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CHES BAY DOWN INTO NE NC. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL WITH GREATEST THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE OVERCAST SKY...SO WILL JUST CARRY A CHC OF T-STORMS FOR NOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WET PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AND ORGANIZATION (SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER VERSUS PRIMARILY THUNDERSTORMS) AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT DETAILS...SO 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WK SFC HI PRES RMNG OVR THE RGN...AND GENLY VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PD. LGT ESE WNDS MAY RESULT IN LO STRATUS/PTCHY FG IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONTG TO MONITOR AREA OF CIGS 5-8KFT W OF I95...HAS SHOWN A LTL MVMNT E OVR THE PAST FEW HRS. OTRW...DURG DYTM...XPCTG SCT/BKN CU ALG W/ ESE WNDS CONTG. A SIMILAR SITU FOR TNGT/FRI MRNG. HIER PROB OF SCT SHRAS/TSRAS FM FRI AFTN THROUGH THE WKND. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES RMNS ALIGNED INVOF ERN CBRD (FM SE CANADA TO GA)...WHL LRG STM SYS CIRCULATED (WELL) OFFSHR. THE STM WL BEGIN TO MV E AWAY FM THE ERN CONUS FRI AFTN THROUGH THIS WKND. SFC RDG AXIS RIGHT NR CST ATTM...SHIFTS A LTL E TDA. HIEST WNDS XPCTD TO PUSH OUT PAST 20NM FOR TDA. DRCTN GRDLLY BCMG SE TDA...RMNG SSE THROUGH THE WKND AS NEXT LO PRES (SLOLY) SYS APPROACHES WATERS FM THE W. SCAS RMNG UP FOR SEAS 5+ FT ON THE OCN...AND HV XTNDD THROUGH SAT BASED LRGLY ON WAVE WATCH GUID. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PD OF HIER THAN NRML TIDES...AVGG 1-1.5 FT ABV NRML...ESP FOR CTYS BRDRING CNTRL BAY PAST 24 HRS. GUID SUGGESTS A LWRG OF TIDAL DEPARTURES THOSE AREAS FOR TDA...BACK TO AT OR JUST BLO 1 FT ABV NRML FOR TDAS HI TIDE CYCLES. WL CONT CSTL FLD STATEMENT FOR MIDDAY HI TIDE. GUID ALSO SUGGEST ANOTHER PTNTL PD OF DEPARTURES RIVALING PAST DAY (TO ABT 1.5 FT ABV NRML) LT FRI THROUGH WKND. WL NEED TO WATCH TIDAL SITES AT LEWISETTA VA...CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS HEAD MD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM