AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 635 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES ON IRENE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SMELLING SMOKE OUTSIDE THE DOOR HERE AT AKQ WITH THE SMOKE LIMITING VSBY ALONG RT460 FROM CPK-SFQ-AKQ-PTB. PLAN IS TO ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO CNTYS ARND THE SFQ FIRE THIS AM DUE TO THE NRLY CALM WNDS. H5 RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST TDY. TSCTNS DRY...BUT XCPT SOME HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME AFTRN CU TO MAKE FOR A M SUNNY DAY AHEAD. MSTR ALONG STALLED FRNTL BNDRY ALONG NC COAST PROGGED BY SHORT RANGE MODELS TO LIFT N LATER TDY. THNK ANY SHWR ACTIVITY STAYS S OF ALBEMARLE SND...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH SKIES BCMG PT SUNNY ACROSS NE NC CNTYS. HUMIDITY LOW AS DP TMPS REMAIN IN THE U50S-L60S DESPITE THE FLOW BCMG SRLY. HIGHS M-U80S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CDFRNT & UPPR TROUGH MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONITE. WAA INCREASES DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MARKING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. XPCT SKIES TO BECOME PT CLDY AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS M60S-L70S. MODELS A BIT SLOWER IN PUSHING APPRCHG CDFRNT E OF MTS THURSDAY. LTST DATA SUGGESTS THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE AFTR 20Z. WILL KEEP LOW CHC AFTRN POPS ACROSS NWRN CNTYS WITH SLGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. PLNTY OF TIME TO HEAT UP AS H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S. FRNT SLOWLY CROSSES AREA THU NITE. PCPN TO BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS NERN CNTYS AS WEAK WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG BNDRY JUST N OF FA. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN NECK AND LWR MD ERN SHORE CNTYS AFTR MIDNITE. OTW...PCPN CHCS QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO THE SW AS SPRT FOR PCPN DMNSHS. LOWS U60-L70S. FRI FCST CHALLENGING AS LTST DATA SHOWING THE PTNTL FOR APPRCHG TRPLCL MSTR BANDS TO MERGE WITH WASHED OUT / DSPTG BNDRY ACROSS THE RGN. THIS CONTS THE PTNTL AS A FOCUS FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP AS OUTER PRECIPITATION BANDS FROM IRENE APPRCH FROM THE S. WILL CAP POPS AT 50% ACROSS SERN CNTYS LWRG TO 20-30% NWRN CNTYS. HIGHS 85-90. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE TRACK AND IMPACT OF HURRICANE IRENE. NHC CONTS TO JOG THE TRACK A BIT FRTHR E WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM NR CAPE HATTERAS AT 00Z SUN. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF & GFS NEVER HAVE IT ACTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL WITH THE CENTER PASSING E OF HAT. FROM THIS POINT THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ROUGHLY NNE. THE NHC TRACK BRINGS IT ACROSS NNE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATER SUNDAY. THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK WOULD SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAIN (MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST) FROM FRIDAY NIGHT (PRECEDING BANDS OF SHOWERS) THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NE SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A BUILD-UP IN POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A TAPERING OFF PERIOD SUNDAY. A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM... WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO SLIGHT CHANCE LOW-END CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DUE TO LACK OF PRECIP OVER PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMP- DEWPOINT SPREADS OF SEVERAL DEGREES. VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. CALM OR LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SSE/S LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AOB 10 KT. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES CURRENTLY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES STAYS OFFSHORE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN VA BY LATE THURSDAY. LIGHT SE FLOW TODAY BECOMES S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT 12-18 KT. WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO INCREASE SEAS STARTING THURSDAY DUE TO SWELLS IN ADVANCE OF IRENE...THEN SEAS REALLY START BUILDING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS MAY EXCEED 10 FT EARLY SATURDAY AND 15 FT LATE SATURDAY BEFORE IRENE FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH. ACTUAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IRENE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>014- 016. VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-093- 096. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR