AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH OFF THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 1145PM...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS HEAVIEST
RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. HEAVIEST
RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND EVENTUALLY NE NC TOWARD DAYBREAK. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES OVER 1-2 HOURS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO TRAINING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ISSUE ANY
FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.

SAT...MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
DRYING TRENDS N-S. EVEN A NAM/SREF/ECMWF BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
KEEPING BETTER THAN 50% POPS OVER S PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (S
OF THE VA/NC BORDER) INTO THE AFTN HOURS. HIGHS A BIT COOLER...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST (LOW-MID 80S). UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE
FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE RESULTANT
EFFECT OF DRIER/WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER MORE
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. RAIN CHCS REMAIN LOW...WITH LTL MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM CHC OVER NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...M80S TO NR 90 AT IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST...TO NR 70
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CNTRD OVR THE SE U.S. MON NGT INTO TUE. A
COLD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE AFTN INTO WED
MORNG. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HI PRES
WILL BLD BACK IN FM THE NNE FOR LATE WED THRU THU...THEN SLIDES OFF
THE CST FOR THU NGT THRU FRI.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 60S
TO MID 70S WED MORNG...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 THU AND FRI
MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 90S TUE...IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 WED...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CNVTN MVG INTO XTRM SE VA AND EVENTUALLY NE NC THROUGH THE
ERY/MID MRNG HRS. LAST SITE TO SEE TSRAS CLR WL BE KECG...MOST
LIKELY BTWN 12-15Z/09. BEHIND THIS AREA OF TSRAS...GENLY VFR CIGS
AND SCT -RA (WELL) INTO MRNG HRS (THOUGH TRENDING TO END FM NW TO SE).
CDFNT SETTLES S OF THE FA BY THIS AFTN...BRINGING CLRG AND VFR
CONDS. SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR THE RGN FOR SUN/MON RESULTING IN
CONTD VFR CONDS. NEXT CDFNT TO APPROACH FM THE NW LT TUE W/ PSBL
SCT CNVTN.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED SCAS FOR SND AND OCN WTRS S OF VA BRDR. WNDS AVGG CLS TO 20
KT ON THE SND...AND 20 TO 25 KT ON THE OCN UNTIL ERY MRNG HRS.
SEAS ARND 5 FT AT ABT 10 MI OUT E OF NE NC OTR BNKS. NO HEADLINES
ELSW. A FRNTL BNDRY WITH AREAS OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT...WILL
PUSH ACRS THE AREA TNGT THRU SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD BY TO OUR NNE
AND OFF THE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU MON. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL DROP
INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE AFTN INTO WED MORNG. EXPECT WND
SPDS/WAVES/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ633-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH