AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 207 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Will issue a special weather statement to cover possible freezing drizzle for early Tuesday morning but impact should be minimal if any develops at all. Otherwise, there are no significant changes with a more active period of weather for the latter part of the workweek into the weekend, but with quite a bit of uncertainty on the details. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak low pressure moving in early Tuesday to Tuesday afternoon could produce patchy freezing drizzle or flurries, but little if any impact given spotty anticipated coverage. - Accumulating snow expected across portions of southern New England Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. - Weather pattern remains quite unsettled for late in the week into next Monday with multiple periods of wintry precip possible. Low confidence on timing and details. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Weak low pressure moving in early Tuesday to Tuesday afternoon could produce patchy freezing drizzle or flurries, but little if any impact given spotty anticipated coverage. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue early tonight, but cloud cover will again be on the increase tonight and overnight. This is in response to a weak-amplitude mid-level shortwave disturbance and associated poorly-organized sfc low pressure currently over the U.P. of MI, a feature which treks ESE through interior northern/north- central New England on Tue. Model point soundings show a pretty dense layer of low-level RH, but the issue is that the top of this layer extends up to around the -8 to -10C isotherm, then dries out entirely, thus opening the door for potential incomplete saturation of the snow-crystal nucleating layer. With that in mind, and that there`s some very spotty/light/mottled-looking QPF in some of the guidance, it might be enough to wring out scattered flurries or very spotty freezing drizzle ("snizzle") as this wave moves through during the pre-dawn hours to the eastern MA coast by the aftn. Although we only need a trace of ice to trigger winter weather advisories, given that the majority of road surfaces have been treated to the point they`re white, and the spotty anticipated coverage, will instead turn to messaging via special weather statement. Even then, any impact would be on unpaved roads or elevated bridges; given with what`s to come later this week (more on that to follow), this very light event doesn`t really fit the bill as being necessarily impactful. If trends in QPF were to increase, then later shift(s) could consider an Advisory, but that doesn`t seem like a likely outcome when looking at the probabilistic datasets. Otherwise, Tue is a cloudy and pretty dreary/raw day despite southwest winds, and undercut NBM 4.3 highs which were in the mid 40s by about 5 degrees, for values in the mid 30s/around 40. Key Message 2...Accumulating snow expected across portions of southern New England Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Difficult snow forecast as there is still uncertainty with axis of heaviest precip and how far south accumulating snow will get across SNE. International guidance (ECMWF, Canadian RDPS and UKMET) remain the warmest solutions and furthest north, while GFS and NAM are colder and further south. Mid level shortwave lifts NE from the Gt Lakes but it will be encountering a closed low over the Maritimes which maintains confluent flow across northern New Eng. This should suppress the shortwave further south and likely keep the surface boundary south of New Eng. As a result leaning toward a somewhat colder solution across SNE which is supportive of more snow than rain north of the MA Pike, while to the south rain may flip to snow late day and evening as colder air filters southward. Precip looks to begin sometime late morning into the afternoon from SW to NE. It could start as rain even for northern MA as BL warms ahead of the precip but wet bulb cooling should result in a quick rain to snow transition north of the Pike with any changeover occurring late day or evening to the south. Decent overrunning situation develops north of the warm front with relatively narrow band of deep moisture and forcing for ascent oriented WNW to ESE across SNE. Where the axis of heaviest precip sets up remains somewhat uncertain and it is possible it could be displaced to the south of the coldest air which adds a level of complexity. We are relying on ensemble guidance and and staying in a probabilistic space until we can gain more confidence. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance indicates highest probs (40-70%) of 3+ inches of snow across interior northern and NW MA. This is where we think there could be 2-4 inches of snow accum with generally an inch of less south of the MA Pike. However, if guidance trends further south more snow could fall south of the Pike as suggested by GFS and NAM. This system pulls away Wed night and we have high confidence of dry conditions Thu with temps mostly in the 30s as high pres builds in from the north. Key Message 3...Weather pattern remains quite unsettled for late in the week into next Monday with multiple periods of wintry precip possible. Low confidence on timing and details. A very complex and chaotic pattern for the end of the week into early next week as there are numerous shortwaves within an active Pacific jet in this highly charged -PNA/-NAO pattern. Global guidance is struggling with how these shortwaves interact with each other and with northern stream energy to the north resulting in a low predictability pattern. It does appear there will be another wintry event sometime Fri into Sat with potential for snow and/or mixed precip but this doesn`t appear to be a significant event. Then we will have to watch the Sunday-Monday period. GFS, AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS all show something potentially significant during this period, but there is a lot of spread among the individual ensemble members. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Through 00z Tuesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing of any improvement in MVFR ceilings. BKN/OVC VFR ceilings for most, though some low-end VFR/MVFR ceilings for eastern and southeast MA and part of eastern RI. Categories not expected to drop any lower, but it is uncertain how soon any improvement in the MVFR ceilings occurs. Expect there to be a lot of BKN/OVC025-040 bases around, potentially into the evening. N to NE winds around 5-10 kt, on the higher end of that range near the east coast. Tonight and Tuesday: Moderate confidence. BKN/OVC VFR (possibly continued MVFR) early but conditions deteriorate to at least widespread MVFR 06-12z as weak wave of low pressure passes to our north. MVFR to borderline IFR ceilings for Tue, which could be accompanied by scattered flurries or patchy freezing drizzle/sprinkles, but either type too spotty to mention in TAF given expected nil accums. Best chance would be between 11-18z west to east. It remains uncertain if ceilings improve thereafter, and MVFR-IFR ceilings could linger into Tue night. Winds become S/SW 5-10 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR/MVFR ceilings thru tonight, then increasing clouds with ceilings dropping to widespread MVFR/borderline IFR. Low chance of flurries or freezing drizzle but accums are nil given spotty coverage. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR ceilings thru tonight, then increasing clouds with ceilings dropping to widespread MVFR/borderline IFR. Low chance of flurries or freezing drizzle but accums are nil given spotty coverage. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA, SN, slight chance FZRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. RA, chance SN. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SN likely, chance RA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Tuesday Night: High confidence. Low pressure continues to pull away from the southeast waters, with decreasing NE to N wind speeds down to 10-15 kt by tonight. Light winds Seas will remain elevated over the outer waters to around 4-6 ft through Tue night, which has prompted extension of the small craft advisory through 12z Wed. Mainly dry weather should prevail, though can`t rule out a flurry or sprinkle Tue aftn but not enough to restrict visbys. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, slight chance of snow. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256. && $$