AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 912 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisory issued along the eastern Massachusetts coast for the early Tuesday morning high tide. Only minor flooding, less than one foot deep, is expected in more vulnerable locations. && .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of minor coastal flooding early Tuesday morning along the eastern Massachusetts coast. - The historical blizzard impacting RI and eastern MA will gradually wind down through the afternoon and early evening. Strongest gusts along SE New Eng coast will slowly diminish late afternoon and evening. - Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled ed weather by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...One more round of minor coastal flooding early Tuesday morning along the eastern Massachusetts coast. Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the early Tuesday morning high tide along the eastern Massachusetts coast. Impacts will be limited to shallow flooding less than one foot deep in more vulnerable areas. There is enough leftover surge of 1.0 to 1.5 ft on top of the astronomical tide to bring most locations close to minor flood stage. In addition, seas of 20 feet off the eastern MA coast are showing wave periods of 13 seconds which is indicative of large swell energy, thus erosion impacts are also expected along exposed parts of the coastline. KEY MESSAGE 2...The historical blizzard impacting RI and eastern MA will gradually wind down through the afternoon and early evening. Strongest gusts along SE New Eng coast will slowly diminish late afternoon and evening. 625 PM update... While the heavy snow has tapered off across RI and eastern MA, the deformation band is actually regenerating a bit across eastern MA so periods of light to moderate snow continue. Drier air is moving in from the west where dewpoints have fallen through the teens. This air will be moving into eastern New England which will result in the band weakening with snow ending between 7 and 10 pm across eastern MA. An additional inch or 2 is possible. Previous discussion... The persistent mesoscale snow band hammering RI and SE MA is weakening as low pres has moved east of the benchmark and heading offshore. This trend will continue through the afternoon with snowfall rates gradually diminishing as the low pulls away. May still have an hour or 2 of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates before the snow lightens up and eventually ends early this evening. Max snowfall from this storm will be 2-3 feet confined to RI and SE MA. Peak of the wind is occurring now across SE coastal MA and Cape/Islands within the core of the low level jet. Wind gusts to 60- 80 mph here will gradually diminish mid to late afternoon with 50-60 mph gusts lingering into the early evening before diminishing further through the night as the LLJ weakens and moves offshore. Otherwise, drying out tonight with partial clearing overnight across SNE with lows dropping into the teens, with lower 20s along the immediate coast. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday. After lows in the teens and single digits Tuesday night, a clipper system emerges from the Great Lakes region Wednesday. A trailing warm front ahead of it brings a chance for some more wintry precipitation with the highest probs of accumulations in the interior. Elsewhere across the coastal plain thermal profiles appear to be marginal with surface temps warming into the mid and upper 30s. NBM has the highest probability for 1 inch of snow or greater snowfall totals in the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Snow may accumulate at lower elevations if the timing of the front but expecting temperatures to quickly warm into middle and upper 30s by the afternoon. Temperatures will have quite a significant diurnal variation Tuesday night through Wednesday with lows falling well below freezing and highs warming into the upper 30s. These warmer daytime temperatures will result in melting and refreezing of any melted snow, leading to slick conditions on untreated walkways. Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low pressure Thursday night into Friday. Details on the exact track and strength are highly uncertain at this time. That being said, ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track north and west of our CWA which result in more of the way of mixed precipitation. Again, we are nearly 6 days away from this system so exact details will be resolved in future forecast updates. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAFs: Moderate confidence (60%). Timing of improvement may be +/- 1-2 hours off. Continued slow improvement through the evening as bands of heavy snow gradually push offshore. Strong winds will continue to reduce visibilities in BLSN even though snowfall rates will decrease, but that should subside overnight as well. VFR Tue with diminishing NW winds backing to W in afternoon. Fast moving system should bring -SN later Tue night with MVFR. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of improvement may be 1-2 hours too fast. Also some uncertainty on how much BLSN will reduce visibility tonight. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SN, slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Chance SN, slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Friday: VFR. Chance RA, chance SN. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Very dangerous and life threatening storm for mariners through this evening. Peak of the gusts occurring this afternoon across eastern MA waters with peak gusts 55-65 kt. Winds have begun to diminish a bit over RI coastal waters and this weakening trend will reach eastern MA waters this evening as the low level jet moves offshore. Winds are expected to fall below gale force after midnight over the eastern MA waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-233>237-256. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-251- 254-255. && $$