AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 648 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence for some accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night across northern MA. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Some snow showers remain possible tonight into Monday morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts expected. - More snow showers possible early Tuesday morning/late Monday night. - Multiple rain, snow or mixed wintry precip events possible from mid week into next weekend. Near seasonable temps. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Some snow showers remain possible tonight into Monday morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts expected. A period of some light snow remains possible tonight into Monday morning, particularly towards the south coast, as a coastal storm passes to our south. Some snow showers in western MA into parts of CT are a possibility as well. The latest guidance has continued to show a coastal storm associated with a southern stream shortwave track to our south and a northern stream shortwave moves into the northeast from the Great Lakes heading into tonight. Even with these waves tracking at roughly the same time, they don`t phase with each other by the time they reach southern New England. We may still see impacts from the coastal storm though, mostly in the way of light snow along the south coast. The northern wave may also bring some light snow showers to parts of the interior; some slightly elevated PWATs there could help facilitate some showers, but not much is expected outside of western MA. In terms of accumulations, no more than a trace to a few tenths of an inch are expected for both the south coast and parts of the interior. And with daytime highs Monday getting into the mid to upper 30s, the light accumulations that we could pick up overnight will likely melt away during the day. The 75th percentiles have at most a few tenths of an inch for parts of southern CT and western MA, and the 25th percentiles continue to show no accumulations at all. Key Message 2...More snow showers possible early Tuesday morning/late Monday night. Drier conditions through the afternoon Monday after any early snow showers towards the south coast. Another shortwave approaches southern New England Monday night into early Tuesday morning and PWATs increase to at/just below 0.5" as it arrives. With the lift from the wave and that increased moisture from some light WAA, some light snow showers and flurries are possible early Tuesday morning. The highest PoPs are in western and central MA into parts of CT, though even then, it is only a slight chance (at or below 20 percent chance). This wave clears out of southern New England by the afternoon, and the already lower chances for some spot snow showers will continue to decrease. Key Message 3...Multiple rain, snow or mixed wintry precip events possible from mid week into next weekend. Near seasonable temps. An active Pacific jet with a parade of shortwaves traversing the CONUS will bring an unsettled pattern to New Eng with multiple precip events from midweek into next weekend. The -PNA pattern with modified Pacific flow will keep arctic well to the north but not that mild here with temps mostly averaging around seasonable norms but periods of colder than normal temps possible. While there is high confidence in an unsettled period in SNE, it`s a rather complex pattern with many shortwaves moving through the flow leading to lower predictability in the finer details of timing of precip events and distribution of ptype across the region. There is better agreement that the first system will impact the region sometime Wed into Wed night as shortwave energy lifts NE from the Gt Lakes, although exact timing, axis of heaviest precip and ptype is still in question. The surface boundary will likely set up near or south of SNE coast with a secondary wave tracking along it which should help to lock in low level cold air, especially across northern MA where best chance for accumulating snow. But some of the ensemble members including a majority of EPS members keep axis of snow further N. These are details which will need to be ironed out over the next 24-48 hrs. Low levels are clearly warmer further south and suggest more rain south of the MA Pike although can`t rule out some snow here if boundary and low track end up further south. Best chance of plowable snow will be across northern MA. GEFS indicating 40-70% probs for greater than 3 inches of snow in northern MA, while EPS showing 20-40% probs with highest probs to the north. Model consensus favors mainly dry conditions Thu with temps near or a bit below normal in the 30s as system pulls away and high pres builds in from the north. Then forecast confidence decreases significantly Friday into next weekend as multiple shortwaves within the active subtropical jet approach New Eng from the SW. Lots of uncertainty with how global guidance handles these shortwaves and whether there will be multiple weaker systems Fri through Sun or a stronger storm to impact the region. However, more accumulating snow is possible for portions of SNE during this time period. Overall a very active weather pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence. BKN/OVC VFR ceilings mainly tonight. Low chance for -SHSN at BDL. Low end VFR to borderline MVFR around BDL/HFD possible in any showers. ENE winds around 5-10 kt, then back to NE/N around 5 kt by 12z Mon. Monday and Monday Night: High confidence. Moderate on MVFR cigs. BKN-OVC ceilings. VFR with potential for patchy low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs developing Monday morning mainly at the eastern terminals. NNE winds in AM becoming NE at 6-11 kts. Monday Night: High confidence. MVFR conditions move in after 06Z with arrival of light scattered snow showers/flurries. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance FZRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, SN likely. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. RA, chance SN, chance FZRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday night...High confidence. Seas 2-3 ft through tonight are expected before a deepening low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight through early Monday morning that will result in building seas into Monday. Seas may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria by Monday night/early Tuesday morning. As the deepening low passes to our south, some elevated E to NE winds in the southern waters are possible for Monday with gusts to around 20 kt. Winds over the northern and eastern waters remain at or below 10 kt. Some light snow showers are possible tonight into Monday over the southern waters associated with the passing low. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$