AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 707 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisories expanded west along Route 2 in MA for 2-4 inches snow possible tonight. Snowfall totals slightly higher across northeast MA. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of accumulating light snow starting late this afternoon through late tonight. - Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light snow and minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of accumulating light snow starting late this afternoon through late tonight. Not much change to the overall forecast into tonight. Was really more like fine-tuning but the overall message is unchanged. A fast-moving clipper brings a minor snowfall to southern New England. Focus of the heaviest snowfall is expected along the Route 2 corridor. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory. WHile most of the snowfall should track across northern New England, there is a risk of snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0" per hour between 8 PM to about 3 AM. There is a possibility snowfall ends a brief period of freezing rain as the dendritic growth zone dries out. However, did not have enough confidence to expand Winter Weather Advisories solely for the freezing rain risk. Expecting precipitation to end from west to east between 2 AM to 7 AM. Closer to the south coast, an intrusion of warmer air should introduce some plain rainfall into the forecast tonight. Not expecting much snowfall here at all. Drier and warmer conditions expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly dry through the weekend except a few chances for light nuisance snow Thursday and Friday. Temperatures make a return to near normal through the weekend. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due to track uncertainty. Expecting a few days of mostly dry weather after the clipper system moves through tonight. Winds return to predominately northwesterlies Wednesday and a subtle inverted trough swings through southern New England as the surface low moves offshore. This trough could bring enough forcing to produce a few light snow showers across the outer Cape and Cape Ann Wednesday night into Thursday morning; however, the latest guidance has trended those snow showers further east and offshore. HREF probabilites are currently showing 10-15% chance of reaching 0.1". High pressure begins to build in over the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic regions Thursday. Once the arctic airmass finally gets pushed offshore, we`ll see a return to more seasonable temperatures. High temperatures make it into the mid to upper 30s over southern New England starting Wednesday, though overnight lows will still fall into the teens and low 20s, with some spots in the interior in the single digits. Another upper-level low moves through Friday night, bringing chances for another quick shot of snow showers to southern New England. NBM probabilities only indicate 10-20% chance of 0.1" across eastern MA as PWATs remain only about 75% of normal. Heading into next week, guidance continues to indicate potential impacts from another coastal storm. Confidence remains low at this point as the latest ensemble and AI guidance have a large spread in the potential track of the low. Although, the ensembles are showing the lows that track further west (closer to the 40N/70W benchmark) strengthening more than those that track further east, something we will continue to be monitoring as we get closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate confidence. MVFR/VFR early tonight, becoming IFR/LIFR as snow becomes more widespread. Snow may be moderate at times, especially across northern MA (BED, BOS). Steadiest snow roughly 03z-07z. Snow may end as rain or wintry mix at times along the south coast and Cape/Islands. Can`t rule out patchy -FZDZ or -FZRA after the bulk of precipitation has ended. However, coverage and location remains low confidence. Wednesday...High confidence in trends. Improving ceilings through the morning with most terminals becoming VFR by 12/13Z while the Cape/Islands may have lingering MVFR through 15Z. NW winds with gusts developing after 14Z. Gusts up to 20-25 kts. Can`t rule out the low chance for an isolated flurry/light snow shower across western MA/CT mid afternoon through the evening. Wednesday Night...High confidence. VFR. Breezy NW winds with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence. -SN shower early this evening. A brief lull is possible after 01/02Z before the next round of steadier snow arrives (03-06Z). Ceilings MVFR/VFR, trending downward as steadier snow develops. Period of moderate snow tonight between 03-06Z. This would bring briefly lower visibilities (1/2SM) and IFR/LIFR ceilings. Snow moves out by 09Z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence. -SN showers possible this evening followed by a round of steadier -SN after 03Z. Wintry mix possible as well as a brief period of -FZRA. Snow/wintry mix ends by 07Z, but can`t rule out some patchy -FZDZ for a brief period after the bulk of precip exits. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday Night...High Confidence. A surface low moves across northern New England tonight, then emerges offshore of southern New England Wednesday morning. In the wake of this system, southwest winds increase and veer to the west-northwest at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt on Wednesday. Seas build to 4-7 ft on the southern outer waters and 3-6 ft on the eastern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories posted for the outer coastal waters through Wednesday night. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray. Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ002. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ002>007-009-014-015-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ235. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$