AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 605 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast today, with an arctic front expected to bring light snow showers today, and very cold air on Monday. Growing confidence in a wintry mix late Tuesday, but the timing of precipitation type and accumulations remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch. -Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. -A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. -Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch An arctic cold front will traverse the region today, bringing a brief round of light snow showers. With limited moisture and upper- level forcing staying confined to northern New England, accumulation will be limited. Guidance has come into much greater agreement on snow totals, from a dusting to 1 inch. The areas with the best chance of an inch will be across the western interior, where 850 mb FGEN will be strongest. The line of snow showers will weaken as it approaches the coast. Snow moves west to east today, entering the Berkshires around 8-9 am and dissipating offshore between 2-3 pm. Snowfall rates will be light, well under 0.5 inches per hour. Key Message 2...Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. Despite today being the first day of meteorological spring, Mother Nature did not get the memo. The Arctic front will usher in another round of very cold temperatures starting Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday morning. 850 mb temps bottom out at -16C Monday morning, with the 510 thickness line nearly reaching Southern New England. This will result in low temperatures Monday morning in the low single digits, possibly below zero in NW MA. With a little leftover wind from the arctic front overnight, the wind chill index will be below zero Monday morning, possibly approaching -10 across the interior. Despite the strong March sun angle, high temperatures will stay below freezing on Monday with a wind chill index in the low 20s. 850mb temperatures begin to warm overnight Monday; however, strong radiational cooling under calm winds and clear skies will allow low temperatures to bottom out in the low teens to high single digits Tuesday morning. Key Message 3...A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance continues to advertise a weak area of low pressure traversing through the region sometime late Tuesday. The accompanying warm front will bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for Tuesday; however, there will be enough residual cold air to lead to a wintry mix of precipitation. Precipitation likely starts out as snow before switching over to freezing rain, then rain. Timing out of these p-type changes is highly uncertain and likely wont be resolved until were within 48 hours with hi-res guidance available. Snow and freezing rain accumulations will remain highly uncertain until the timing of p- type can be nailed down. Key Message 4...Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. The active weather pattern continues through the end of the work week as the zonal jet stream and stalled frontal boundary send several weak waves of shortwave energy into southern New England. Temperatures starting Wednesday are expected to rise well above normal, with highs approaching the 50s and overnight lows even staying near or above freezing. This will help keep any precipitation that falls during the end of the week as rain. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. VFR ahead of a line of light snow moving west to east this morning between 14z-19z, 17-20z for the Cape and Islands. MVFR CIGS expected to accompany the light snow. VFR behind the snow with gusty NW winds around 20 knots. Sunday Night through Monday...Moderate Confidence. Conditions return to VFR after the -SN moves offshore. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 15-16z and departing 19-20z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 14-15z and departing 17-18z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance FZRA, slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA, SN, chance FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance FZRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Morning...High confidence. Northerly winds begin to increase to near 25 knots tonight into Monday morning, with seas building to 5 feet across the outer waters where SCA`s have been issued. Chance of light to moderate freezing spray across the inner waters Monday night into late Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$