AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 220 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Downgraded marine hazards to Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories early this morning. Expecting all Small Craft Advisories for the coastal waters before daybreak. && .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of minor coastal flooding early this morning along the eastern Massachusetts coast. - Mostly clear Tuesday before a warm front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Expecting another unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system should bring light precipitation Wednesday. Another coastal low pressure has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather some time late Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...One more round of minor coastal flooding early this morning along the eastern Massachusetts coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect for the early morning high tide today along the eastern Massachusetts coast. Impacts will be limited to shallow flooding less than one foot deep in more vulnerable areas. There is enough leftover surge of 1.0 to 1.5 ft on top of the astronomical tide to bring most locations close to minor flood stage. In addition, seas of 20 feet off the eastern MA coast are showing wave periods of 13 seconds which is indicative of large swell energy, thus erosion impacts are also expected along exposed parts of the coastline. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly clear Tuesday before a warm front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expecting Tuesday to remain mostly dry and sunny with afternoon highs around 32 and overnight lows dropping into the single digits and low teens. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will see the arrival of warm front preceding a fast moving clipper system moving out of the Great Lakes Wednesday. This warm front will bring chances for another round of wintry precip, with highest confidence of accumulation across interior southern New England. Not expecting large accumulations with this system at this time. KEY MESSAGE 3...Expecting another unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system should bring light precipitation Wednesday. Another coastal low pressure has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather some time late Thursday into Friday. Trending warmer Wednesday as a clipper system moves across southeast Canada and northern New England. Timing will be everything with this low pressure. Light snow most likely during the nighttime hours. Increased S to SW winds should boost temperatures above freezing, eventually leading to a transition to rain across the coastal plain by the afternoon. Much lighter snowfall of 1-3" is anticipated before that can happen, with the highest accumulations towards the higher terrain of the Berkshires and the Worcester Hills. Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low pressure some time late Thursday into Friday. As we have said many time this winter, the exact track and strength details are highly uncertain this far into the future. That being said, ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track to our south, providing more of a glancing pass from a much weaker low pressure that what we had yesterday. Again, we are nearly 3 days away from this system so exact details will be resolved with future forecast updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. NW-ly winds gusting up to 25 knots this morning gradually diminish to W-ly winds 5 to 10 knots by this evening. Another fast moving system should bring -SN chances late Tues night into Weds morning. Not expecting much accumulation outside of an inch or two at this time. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SN, slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale Warnings continue across the outer coast waters for a couple more hours this morning, then expecting Small Craft Advisory conditions gradually diminishing through today into tonight. It will take some time for seas to subside across the outer coastal waters after yesterdays storm. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Snow, chance of rain. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, chance of rain. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230- 233-234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ236. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ250-251- 254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ256. && $$