AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1226 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Confidence remains high on well below normal temperatures this week with another surge of Arctic air Thursday night into Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry with well below normal temperatures this week, and potentially hazardous wind chills Thursday night into Friday. - Monitoring a possible late-weekend East Coast US storm which could threaten Southern New England or remain too far offshore, but uncertainty remains large. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Mainly dry with well below normal temperatures this week, and potentially hazardous wind chills Thursday night into Friday. High pressure builds into region with mainly dry but continued cold temperatures this week. We may see some flurries or snow showers Thursday ahead of a more significant arctic front which is followed by yet another reinforcement of arctic air Thursday night into Friday. During that time, we may need cold weather headlines for wind chills well below zero. On the coastal waters, this should bring another round of Gale force winds and at least light freezing spray. Key Message 2...Monitoring a possible late-weekend East Coast US storm which could threaten Southern New England or remain too far offshore, but uncertainty remains large. We continue to monitor trends pertaining to a possible coastal system which could threaten Southern New England late this weekend/Sunday, one which has garnered quite a bit of buzz early this week given the recent snowstorm. An amplified and rather complex 500 mb configuration develops in Canada, with an upper ridge over western Canada helping to consolidate and drive southward a complex upper trough near Hudson Bay/central Canada around mid to late this week, digging and potentially closing off somewhere either into the Ohio Valley and/or Deep South around late week or early this weekend. This closed upper feature will also be associated with a strong reservoir of cold air, with sfc low development near or just offshore the US East Coast. Interaction of this cold air with the mild Gulfstream waters could really help to deepen/enhance a coastal low through air-sea baroclinic influences, with most ensemble members depicting a sub- 990 mb low with varied placement either somewhere along or offshore the US East Coast and then pass in vicinity of 40N/70W. Although this storm could have a higher ceiling given the above and we`ll continue to monitor, there are otherwise still too many uncertainties at this Day-6 timeframe that need to be ironed out. It thus remains way too early to lock into any potential outcome at this time - ranging from a significant slow-moving winter storm to a dry pass offshore. Noted several individual spokes of vort energy rotating around the central Canada trough before it starts to consolidate/dig southward into the north- central US around mid to late this week, and any subtle change in any of those vort maxima could have substantial implication on what transpires. Ensemble cluster analysis even reflects this, showing sensitivity to details pertaining to how soon, how strong and how far south will this digging trough-to- closed-low evolve. Those elements are things we`ll be monitoring in particular, but we may not have a great handle on how that interaction shakes out until midweek at earliest. Given the large spread, instead of buying off on one solution, it`s more prudent to continue to "dollar-cost-average" what the ensembles and AI-trained guidance tell us over the next few days until there`s more convergence on a more- likelier outcome. Astronomical tides also look higher than this past storm with Boston at 11.0 ft, Providence at around 5.17 ft, and Nantucket around 4 ft for the Sunday morning Feb 1st high tide, so potential for coastal flooding will also have to be monitored. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAFs: High confidence. Mainly VFR through Wed night. BKN-OVC cigs 4-6k ft developing through early evening with a risk of a few snow showers with brief MVFR vsbys, then clearing. A period of W gusts to 20-30 kt developing late afternoon and evening, with potential gusts to 35 kt at ACK, diminishing overnight. W wind 10-15 kt Wed. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... Thursday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence this week. Gale Warnings and Freezing Spray Advisories remain posted for most of coastal waters through today, although strongest winds will persist through the morning. Much of the week will feature gusty winds to SCA levels and rough seas along with bands of snow showers mainly offshore. Another round of Gale force winds and at least light to moderate freezing spray appears likely Thursday night into Friday. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing spray. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing spray. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-251. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$