AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 124 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly warmer trends with respect to Friday`s snow and mixed precipitation event. Looking at more in the way of sleet and even freezing rain, which has reduced expected snowfall totals by a couple of inches. There is also increasing confidence that snow, or at least a period of snow showers, lingers through much of the day on Saturday. Outside of the Friday system, guidance has trended northwest with the Sunday and Monday coastal storm. We are still 4-5 days from any potential impacts but the system certainly bears watching. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures through tonight. - A wintry mix develops Fri-Fri night. Greatest risk for several inches of snow still appears to be across northern Massachusetts. Snow lingers into Saturday with additional accumulations possible. - Latest guidance has shifted farther north and west with the track of a late weekend storm, bringing a greater chance for widespread snowfall and coastal flood impacts. There are still around 100 hours until this system would bring impacts, so a variety of outcomes remain on the table. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures through tonight. A ridge of high pressure provides a brief period of quiet weather today and tonight. Anticipating a mix of sun and clouds heading into this afternoon, with more clouds towards the western half of southern New England. Increasing clouds tonight as the warm front associated with a low pressure in the Great Lakes approaches from the south. KEY MESSAGE 2...A wintry mix develops Fri-Fri night. Greatest risk for several inches of snow still appears to be across northern Massachusetts. Snow lingers into Saturday with additional accumulations possible. Attention turns to Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes pushing a warm front toward the CWA Friday into Friday night. We will also have to watch secondary low pressure system developing off the NJ coast prolonging impacts into Saturday. Precipitation type forecast remains somewhat complex as high pressure across Quebec looks to provide enough of a dry/cold antecedent airmass to result in snow and ice across portions of the region. Ultimately, precipitation type will depend on how quickly the secondary low pressure develops. Initial low pressure system passing over the Great Lakes will allow mid-level warmth to advect northward across our region through Friday evening, then the secondary low will cut this surge off. So the earlier secondary low pressure develops the colder and snowier it will be especially across northern areas. On the other hand, a later development will result in a warmer solution with more in the way of rain for the coastal plain and a longer period freezing rain farther inland. The 00z guidance continues to offer a range of solutions for the strength and location of the mid-level warm nose, so still taking a probabilistic approach at this time. The latest NBM has a broad area of 10-20% probs for >0.05" of freezing rain for much of interior Massachusetts. NBM shows slightly higher probs across the Worcester hills with values as high as 30-40%. While this is certainly a signal for freezing rain, there are several details that will need to be ironed out. BUFKIT model soundings show numerous possible evolutions of the warm nose with the 00z NAM indicating a deeper (200mb) and warmer (+2-3C) layer. Freezing rain is generally preferred when temps in the above 0C layer exceed +3C so these models with higher FZRA show deeper warm noses. Colder guidance including the GFS, HRDPS, and RRFS have a cooler +0C layer (+1-2C) that would favor more of a transition from snow to sleet. The eventual magnitude of the mid level warm layer will make the difference between much of the region receiving several inches of snow or more ice/rain especially southern locations. Higher confidence in a period of accumulating snow for much of the region Friday afternoon and evening with strong isentropic lift along the warm front. Unfortunately, some of the heavier snow may fall near the Friday afternoon commute so travel impacts are anticipated. Mixed precipitation may change back to a period of snow Friday night and linger into Saturday as an inverted trough-like feature lingers over the region. This still looks like an advisory event but cannot rule out a marginal warning situation across parts of northern MA where snowfall is higher. This risk would increase if that inverted trough feature sets up and snow showers linger through Sat. KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest guidance has shifted farther north and west with the track of a late weekend storm, bringing a greater chance for widespread snowfall and coastal flood impacts. There are still around 100 hours until this system would bring impacts, so a variety of outcomes remain on the table. Last few model runs have shown a more amplified downstream ridge and have thus trended back northwest with a potentially very powerful coastal storm Sun night into Mon. That being said, these trends moreso serve to underscore the run-to-run variability as this is a Day 4-5 forecast, which is an eternity in the model world. If these trends continue as much of the guidance suggests, then there may be a period of perhaps significant impacts Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of time here and the model trends will be very important over the next 48 hours. Not much more we can say at this point, but it is way too early to write this one off and it still bears watching. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Light winds gradually shift from N to NE this morning to E to SE tonight. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, FZRA, chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. RA, chance SN, FZRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the end of this week. Leftover swell will maintain 5 ft seas on outer waters where Small Craft Advisories remain posted. Otherwise, relatively light winds and seas expected through tonight. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain, slight chance of freezing rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow. Monday: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ254>256. && $$