AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 159 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Warning canceled. Gale Warnings and Freezing Spray Advisories posted for most of the coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of light to moderate snow continue behind low pressure as it pulls offshore this afternoon and evening. - Well below normal temperatures bring cold and potentially hazardous wind chills especially Thursday night into Friday. - Watching the potential for a coastal storm late this weekend but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Periods of light to moderate snow continue behind low pressure as it pulls offshore this afternoon and evening. Southern New England remains stuck between a bunch of larger synoptic features for the next 36 hours or so. One last round of light to moderate snowfall is expected to finally move offshore late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Visibility as low as 1/2 mile for some. Canceled the Winter Storm Warning because any additional snowfall will not make conditions much worse than they are already. Travelers should remain alert for rapidly dropping visibility in the heavier snow showers heading into the evening commute. Key Message 2...Mainly dry weather with well below average temperatures for the upcoming week with a moderating trend this. Watching the potential for a coastal storm late this weekend. Surface high pressure builds in behind departing low pressure setting the stage for drier albeit much colder weather for the mid to late week timeframe. A few flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday as an Arctic front swings through. Otherwise, the more significant risk for meaningful precipitation arrives next weekend as we are beginning to monitor the track of yet another potential coastal storm. Confidence this far out is quite low as any impacts are nearly a week out. Big story late this week will be cold temperatures. Daily high temperatures about 5-15 degrees below normal late this week into the weekend. This translates to highs in the upper teens in the interior and lower 20s closer to the coast. Lows will be significantly colder with highs above and below zero. Coldest temperatures arrive Thursday and Friday as an Arctic front swings through. Will have to watch wind chill values for the potential for cold weather related headlines Thursday night into Friday as the NBM is showing wind chill values falling into the -10s. Thursday night into Friday morning. For our marine interests, we will monitor the chance for light to moderate freezing spray for that timeframe. Temps moderate somewhat Sunday as 850mb temps climb from -14 to -8C. Certainly not a warm day by any measure, but it will be the closest to average through the week. Key Message 3...Watching the potential for a coastal storm late this weekend but confidence is low. Finally, guidance has honed in on the threat of a coastal low later Sunday into the start of next week. At this point, deterministic solutions range from a significant storm to a system that passes well to the southeast of the benchmark with minimal impacts. Synoptically, guidance shows a shortwave ejecting from a larger trough over eastern Canada as anomalous high latitude blocking displaces the trough to the south. The negatively- tilted shortwave then triggers cyclogenesis somewhere off the southeastern US Saturday night. Being somewhat pedantic here so as to illustrate that there are many moving parts with this setup. How anomalous and expansive will the high latitude blocking be? The N-S extent of the block will determine the placement of the upper trough over SE Canada. How deep will the shortwave be as it moves south? That will help to dictate the location/strength of the low. Will it be negatively tilted? This will also help determine the low strength and track. These are all questions that guidance will undoubtedly produce a myriad of different solutions for over the next several days. To put it plainly, the exact track and strength of any system is highly uncertain at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00Z: High Confidence in trends. Moderate Confidence in timing. Light snow continues through this evening. Could see briefly moderate snow heading into the evening push. Tonight: High Confidence. MVFR, becoming VFR. Sky cover becoming clear. NW wind 10 knots with gusts 20 knots. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: High Confidence. VFR. Mid-level clouds increase through the day with winds decreasing and shifting WSW. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night: High confidence. Briefly poor visibility less than 1 NM possible across the eastern coastal waters this evening in snow showers. Otherwise, good visibility expected for most of tonight into Tuesday. Another surge of colder air moves over the coastal waters later tonight and continues into Tuesday. Expecting frequent gale- force gusts. With the combination of these winds, rough seas, and arctic air, seeing a strong signal for a period of moderate freezing spray. Gale Warnings and Freezing Spray Advisories posted for the coastal waters. Winds, and the corresponding risk for freezing spray, diminish after daybreak into mid morning Tuesday. Seas will take longer to subside across the outer coastal waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing spray. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-250-254. Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254>256. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ251. && $$