AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 202 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisories have all been cancelled as storm has moved offshore. No changes for Sunday`s snow potential. Still looking at a chance of snow showers with decreasing chances for a more substantial snow event. Increasing chances for light to moderate freezing spray Sunday night into Monday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure brings dry and cold weather through Saturday. - Increasing chance for snow showers on Sunday. - Light to moderate freezing spray over the waters is likely into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...High pressure brings dry and cold weather through Saturday. As today`s system continues to exit east, we`ll see broad mid level troughing remain over the northeast through Friday with rising heights heading into the weekend. This and the associated cold, dry NW flow combined with surface high pressure moving ever closer through Saturday will make for a cold and dry stretch of weather. The main impact of note will be the gusty winds today into Friday as SNE is sandwiched between low pressure over Nova Scotia and high pressure to our west. The gradient is tightest this afternoon and evening which is when we expect to see the gustiest winds over land; however it will remain breezy into Saturday, especially over the waters. This increases concern for light freezing spray to cause issues as gusty cold winds blow over the relatively warm water. Given the cold airmass overhead (925 mb temps as cold as -15C) highs will be around 10 degrees colder than average, in the 20s to low 30s. The only exception to the dry forecast would be the potential for the wind trajectory to briefly be favorable for some ocean effect snow showers on Nantucket during the early morning hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing chance for snow showers on Sunday. 12z guidance has come into better agreement on the potential for a period of light snow/ snow showers Sunday. General consensus still shows a very light event with both the ECMWF and GFS ENS showing very low (<10% chance) for 0.1" of QPF or greater. Slightly higher probs exist for the Cape and Islands, perhaps as high as 20-30%. Admittedly it will be difficult to see much more than a light and scattered snowfall from this setup as upper level confluent flow keeps the bulk of the moisture and forcing from a weak but moisture laden disturbance well offshore. Thus, the areal extent and potential intensity of any snowfall will depend on the strength of a shortwave embedded in the northern branch of the jet. KEY MESSAGE 3...Light to moderate freezing spray over the waters is likely into this weekend. A lengthy period of cold air over the warmer waters will give rise to the likelihood of freezing spray becoming a concern for mariners through at least Saturday, and possibly into early next week as well. There is potential for moderate freezing spray late tonight into early Friday, therefore a Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued for the waters off of Cape Ann, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound. Another round of freezing spray is possible later Sunday into Monday behind a strong cold front that is forecast to pass through the region Sunday night. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This afternoon and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. WNW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots this afternoon gradually diminish tonight and become more westerly. Friday...High confidence. VFR with gusty W winds. Friday Night...High confidence. VFR. W winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. * Northwest Gale Force Winds through Friday morning along with the threat of moderate freezing spray for some waters. Tonight...High Confidence. Gusty NW winds with Gale Force gusts through tonight for most waters. Easing wind by Friday morning. Threat for moderate freezing spray for waters north of Cape Ann to the Merrimack River, as well as Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound between this evening and Friday morning. Friday and Friday Night...High Confidence. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Seas 3-6 ft. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251-256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-250-251. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255. && $$