AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 108 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. We now have high confidence in springtime warmth for much of this week, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding within the next 7 days. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Any lingering scattered showers depart by this evening. - Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday. - Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Any lingering scattered showers depart by this evening. A slow-moving front should finally push offshore this evening. Expecting gradual clearing for most of southern New England as drier air arrives from the NW. However, clouds and areas of fog are likely to linger towards the south coast, including the Cape and islands, pretty much all night. Above normal low temperatures anticipated tonight. We continue this warming trend right into Monday night with drier weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday. A mid-level ridge builds in further from the south advecting in warm, southerly flow. In response, 925mb temperatures rise to 10-14C, supporting above normal temperatures for much of next week. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the 60s with a interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70. This runs temperatures round 20-25 degrees above normal. However, immediate coastal areas end up on the cooler side, especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front sinking into the northern portions of MA, mainly northeast MA. If this front shifts far enough southward, temperatures would end up cooler in northeast MA relative to other areas of southern New England. Confidence still on the lower end with this given the lack of model agreement and there is some question on the south extent of the front/cooler air. The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of precipitation through late week. A plume of above normal moisture will advect in out ahead of a more robust shortwave moving across the Great Lakes starting Wednesday. A weaker leading wave will help generate scattered showers on Wednesday. Thursday`s wave will be more organized with a stronger cold front/trough accompanying it. This will support more widespread precipitation Thursday. Likely rain to start, with a transition to snow/wintry mix possible for the higher terrain as the front works through later Thursday. Trending cooler for Friday behind the cold front. Confidence in the pattern decreases into the weekend with potential for a few systems to move through the flow bringing periodic chances for precipitation Saturday through early the following week. KEY MESSAGE 3...Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible. Elevated temperatures and dewpoints this week will lead to rapid melting of what`s left of our snowpack, which eventually leads to rises on rivers and streams. Guidance continues to indicate a likelihood of reaching minor flood stage in the CT river valley late next week, and can`t rule out several other rivers as well. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. LIFR conditions will persist along the south coast, Cape and Islands early this morning in widespread fog which will be dense at times. This fog should finally burn off through the morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions persist across the rest of the region. Calm/light SW winds tonight. Winds will be from the S-SW at 7 to 15 knots. Tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Risk for IFR in stratus and fog towards the Cape and islands late. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR with chance for MVFR at ACK. SW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Thursday: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Thursday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Friday: Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Monday...High confidence. Lingering rough seas across the coastal waters will be slower to diminish, but should finally drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by mid morning Monday. Lastly, areas of fog reducing visibility to less than 1 NM will remain a concern for mariners until a cold front finally moves off to the east this evening. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ254>256. && $$