AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 239 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and blustery conditions continue into Friday...but a ridge of high pressure allows winds to diminish Friday night and Saturday despite the continuation of chilly temperatures. Snow is possible late Saturday into Sunday, though there are uncertainties with the forecast at this time. Chilly and breezy on Monday. Moderating temperatures Tuesday into the end of the week. Few fast moving and weak disturbances are possible throughout the week as the flow aloft becomes zonal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages * Steep pressure gradient and strong low level jet brings widespread 35-50 mph gusts * Wind chills dip into the single digits tonight, possibly even the negatives in the higher terrain A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Friday morning. Already seeing 35 knot gusts across most of the CWA, with the possibility of seeing some gusts up to 40 knots through the evening as the pressure gradient continues to tighten. In addition to the gusty winds, also expecting overnight temperatures to drop precipitously... well into the teens for most of SNE, low 20s for the Cape and Islands. Wind chill readings tonight are highly likely to reach the single digits across SNE, with the higher terrain areas possibly even seeing some negative wind chills. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Gusty winds continue through Friday morning as the LLJ moves further offshore and the pressure gradient begins to weaken with the approach of a surface high. Expecting a sunny and dry day with afternoon temperatures in the high 20s for the high terrain areas and low to mid 30s for the rest of SNE. Wind chills tomorrow morning start out in the singly digits then gradually increase throughout the day to the low 20s. Evening and overnight temperatures will once again plummet... expecting Cape and Islands to remain in the mid 20s with the rest of SNE in the mid teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages... * Snow is possible late Saturday into Sunday, though there are uncertainties with the forecast at this time. * Chilly and breezy on Monday. Moderating temperatures Tuesday into the end of the week. Few fast moving and weak disturbances are possible throughout the week as the flow aloft becomes zonal. Saturday and Sunday: High-pressure positioned south of New England allows for a quiet and dry Saturday. Light southwest flow ushers in a slightly warmer air mass, afternoon highs are between the middle and upper-30s, with the immediate south coast, Cape Cod, and islands reaching the low-40s. Area of high- pressure shifts east and off the coast as a robust mid-level shortwave and trough approaches. This system could bring minor snowfall to southern New England and would be the first widespread and measurable snow (more than 0.1") for the coastal plain. Now, before everyone becomes too excited this system doesn`t appear to be a prolific snow maker. Questions that still need to be ironed out are how quickly does the low develop and how closer/far out to sea does it track. 12z set of guidance today shows two camps; one is a near shore solution with appreciable snowfall accumulations south of the Mass Pike with the greatest totals near the south coast. And a second solution, a pass out to sea with the best snowfall chances suppressed along the immediate south coast. Models in camp one are the Canadian and NAM12km and in camp two are GFS/ECMWF & AIFS/UKMET. When viewing the NBM 5.0 probabilities, areas along and south of an arbitrary line from Hartford, to Providence, to Plymouth have the best chance of 1.0" or greater of snow, at 50-70%, with a 10-30% chance of more than 2.0". As this is a coastal system, areas north of the Mass Pike, have less than a 15% chance of 1.0". This will need to be watched over the coming days, though as this is occurring over the weekend, impacts to travel should be lower versus during the weekday morning rush. Behind this system, another shot of cold air rushes in with the northwest flow. Highs on Sunday hover around the freezing mark at the coast and mid- 20s inland. Followed by overnight temperatures in the teens to single digits. Gusty winds Sunday night 20-30 mph allow it to feel +/- 5F. Monday through Midweek: Low-pressure moves into Canadian Maritimes and gusty northwest wind returns for Monday. Chilly Monday afternoon with highs in the 20s and low-30s. Next week, there are a couple of northern stream disturbances, albeit weak, ride the zonal mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest to New England. Temperatures warm starting on Tuesday with highs in the 30s, but middle of next week those could reach well into the 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Through tonight...High Confidence VFR. Westerly wind gusts of 30-40 knots continue through tonight. A few gusts up to 45 knots possible especially in the high terrain. Friday...High Confidence VFR. Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SN. Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Friday...High confidence. Strong CAA brings westerly gales for all the waters continuing through Friday. Near storm force westerlies tonight into Friday morning. Gales gradually relax after 18z Friday afternoon. Chance of light freezing spray tonight and Friday morning across the southern waters. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Snow likely, chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>024-026. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-251. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$