AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 715 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes since last update. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold and dry for the first half of the weekend - Warm, dry, and windy Sunday then trending unsettled again with periods of showers Tuesday through late-week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and dry for the first half of the weekend North/northwest flow behind an exiting cold front continues to usher cooler air into southern New England this afternoon. The high temperature at WFO Norton today is 48 degrees and that was observed at 7AM this morning! The air mass advecting in from the north will support cold/dry conditions through tomorrow night. Low temps tonight bottom out in the low to mid 20s for most of the region. This will be followed by a sunny albeit chilly March afternoon with highs peaking in the mid to upper 30s. Winds begin to shift southwest tomorrow night into Sunday which should support milder temperatures for Sunday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm, dry, and windy Sunday then trending unsettled again with periods of showers Tuesday through late-week. Temperatures moderate Sunday as the mid-level trough exits to the east. This will bring high temperatures back to seasonable values in the mid to upper 40s. Conditions will be on the windier side with a SW LLJ jet nudging in from the south later Sunday. Model sounding profiles indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with a wider dewpoint depressions, supporting gusty winds (20-30 mph) and also fairly dry conditions. Something to keep an eye on for marginal fire weather conditions in areas across interior southern New England. The pattern trends unsettled early next week with ensemble guidance showing a series of mainly weak shortwave troughs moving through the flow, tracking across southern New England. There are still timing differences in the timing of the individual waves across deterministic/ensemble guidance. A plume of anomalous moisture begins to advect in by early Tuesday, followed by the first round of scattered showers around that timeframe. Expect periodic chances for showers through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be mainly above normal for the first half of the week, even with a chance at hitting 70 Wednesday. A cold front moves through later in the week, trending temperatures back to seasonable/slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Through 06z...High Confidence VFR. North winds 5-10 knots. Northeast winds across the cape and islands. Tomorrow...High Confidence VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence VFR. 10 knot northwest winds becoming light out of the west/southwest around 5 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Rest of Today through Tomorrow Night Gusty north/northwest winds and 4-6 foot seas gradually diminish and subside overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. Relatively quiet weather across the coastal waters by March standards thereafter with 10-20 knot northerly with prevailing through Saturday. Winds begin to shift to the west/southwest Saturday night into Sunday morning. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256. && $$