AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1233 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today with a warm front bringing a period of rain from late this afternoon into tonight followed by mild weather with scattered showers Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A strong cold front sweeps across the region Wednesday night with colder and blustery conditions following for Thanksgiving Day. Windy and cold weather Friday and Saturday, then moderating temperatures with risk of showers late Sunday into Monday as a frontal system approaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Dry to start with increasing clouds. Widespread light rain arrives by late afternoon into the evening. Winds have calmed this morning as the center of high pressure passes just to our south. This high is on its way east and will continue in that trajectory today, soon replaced by a trough of low pressure ahead of which we`ll see increasing warm southerly flow. This warm front lifts north today bringing with it increasing mid and high clouds and eventually widespread isentropically forced precipitation. Model guidance, however, indicates a very dry layer between 950-750mb which will take a while to saturate, so while rain chances will be on the increase from west to east this afternoon/evening, wet weather likely doesn`t arrive until late the late afternoon or evening. This also pushes temperatures several degrees above normal, in the mid 50s. Stratiform showers overnight likely drop between a quarter and half inch of rain before exiting early Wednesday morning as the core of a LLJ shifts offshore and frontal forcing lifts north. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Widespread showers end early but scattered rain showers continue through the day. * Well above average temperatures. Placed within the warm sector, SNE will see temperatures well above normal for late November, in the upper 50s to near 60 in spots! The cold front is slow to arrive, not until after 8pm, so lots of lingering moisture will mean the continued chance of scattered showers on Wednesday as the shortwave approaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Blustery and turning colder late Wednesday night and Thursday. * Windy and cold Friday into Saturday. * Becoming unsettled late Sunday into Monday with moderating temps. Overall looking at a quiet and benign stretch for the Thanksgiving holiday. The issue of note will be the cold and wind Thursday into the start of the weekend as Wednesday night`s cold front ushers in a much cooler post frontal airmass. This cold advection leads to efficient mixing down of a 35-45 kt LLJ starting Thursday and peaking Friday into Saturday. Thus, we can expect wind gusts of 20- 30 mph on Thursday, perhaps as high as 30-40 mph on Friday when the low level jet peaks. Saturday winds come down but remain breezy. Meanwhile, a much colder airmass is overhead so these winds will make highs in the 30s and low 40s on Friday feel like the 20s and low 30s. Overall a dry stretch, though can`t rule out a stray shower on Friday given the trough/cold pool aloft. By the start of next week we`re tracking the potential for a pattern change bringing the return of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z update... Rest of Today Overcast VFR with modest south/southwest winds around 10 knots. Some 20+ knot gusts near the coast. -RA/RA moves in from west to east between 21-00Z along with MVFR ceilings. Tonight...High Confidence in Trends MVFR ceilings and RA overspread the region after 00Z. Ceilings eventually fall to IFR/LIFR between 03-06Z with MVFR/IFR vsbys in RA. Tomorrow...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing RA comes to an end by 12Z. Additional scattered showers possible for much of the day tomorrow, but most terminals stay dry, especially after 18Z. IFR persist through tomorrow afternoon with some improvements to VFR/MVFR ceilings possible by 00Z Tomorrow Night... High Confidence Cold front crosses the region tomorrow and clears skies from west to east between 00 and 06Z. WInds shift to the west from 10 to 15 knots with some 25 knot gusts possible near the coast. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Expect RA at BOS between 00-02Z with condition deteriorating to IFR by 06Z. Possible we see some further deterioration to LIFR if an onshore flow develops, but right now thinking south/southwest winds should fend off ceilings below 500 feet. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Thanksgiving Day through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Wednesday... High confidence. * Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters starting Tuesday night. * Potential for westerly Gale Force conditions Thursday afternoon through early Saturday across all waters. Wind shifts to the southwest on Tuesday with gusts less than 20 knots across all waters and seas between 2 and 4 feet until seas increase over the southern waters, 4-6 ft Tuesday night. Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ231-250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232>235-237-254>256. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ANZ232>235-237-255-256. && $$