AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 629 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The probability for a brief round of rain/snow showers has been increased after 8-9 pm until 2-3 am. Guidance trending a possible storm for the start of next week away from the region, but unsettled weather still cannot be entirely ruled out as significant spread across the guidance remains. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief round of scattered rain/snow showers after 8-9 pm until about 2-3 am with even a few snow squalls possible across the interior. The next system passes well to our south late Thu/Thu night with no impacts. - Cold front passing through Sunday that may bring some snow showers. Colder temperatures with a potential Arctic outbreak for the start of the week. - Unsettled weather still a possibility for the start of next week, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Brief round of scattered rain/snow showers after 8-9 pm until about 2-3 am with even a few snow squalls possible across the interior. The next system passes well to our south late Thu/Thu night with no impacts. A shortwave/cold front will cross the region tonight. Vigorous shortwave energy coupled with some moisture/instability in the 0-2 KM layer will result in scattered snow showers and perhaps a few brief snow squalls too across the interior. This activity will enter western MA after 8-9 pm and it is not out of the question a few spots receive a quick one half to 1" of new snow with the greatest risk in the high terrain. Some of this activity may survive onto the I-95 corridor in the 11 pm to 2 am time window. Warmer boundary layer may result in Ptype mixed with or even in the form of rain showers. Regardless...not really expecting any additional roadway impacts near the coast given above freezing temps when the activity moves across the region. Otherwise...these scattered rain/snow showers departs after 2-3 am with lows in the 20s to near 30 by daybreak. Plenty of sunshine Thu with highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Low pressure will pass well to our south late Thu/Thu night with mainly just some mid level clouds and we are favoring it remaining dry. The GFS remains a northern outlier...but a worst case scenario would be a coating to 1" on the immediate south coast/Cape and Islands and that is just a low probability at this point. Key Message 2...Cold front passing through Sunday that may bring some snow showers. Colder temperatures with a potential Arctic outbreak for the start of the week. Guidance is indicating a possible Arctic outbreak over southern New England to start the week after a more seasonable first half of the weekend. A cold front pushes through Sunday, and the chance for some light snow showers moves in with it. Some low to mid-level moisture along with CAA and the lift from the front will be helpful for these showers developing. Behind the front, strong CAA continues as Arctic air settles over the region. 925 mb temperatures fall from around 0C to -15C and even down to -20C by Monday morning. Highs Monday will likely not climb higher than the 20s and lows Sunday and Monday night will likely fall back into the low teens and single digits. Key Message 3...Unsettled weather still a possibility for the start of next week, but confidence remains low. Considerable spread regarding the chance for another storm system Monday into Tuesday still exists across the different ensembles and deterministic models. With regards to precip, confidence is very low as the track for this system is still very uncertain. Some ensemble suites have the high pressure moving in over Quebec shifting more south over New York state into northern New England by Monday morning. If this occurred, precipitation would be suppressed. Latest guidance has not much of a signal for a wave impacting the region for Monday as a result. GEFS still has a signal for a system Monday, but even it has trended south. Will be something to continue monitoring, especially this far out. Unsettled weather may still make a return past Monday, but again, there is significant spread across all guidance suites at this time, so confidence is quite low in this part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence in trends with moderate confidence in timing. Conditions improving to VFR tonight with the exception of during any brief precipitation in the 02z to 08z window with a cold frontal passage. A line of snow showers with a few heavier snow squalls possible will drop into northwest MA after 01z-02z. This activity may reach the I-95 corridor in the 04z to 07z window perhaps mixed with or in the form of rain showers. This activity may result in briefly lower cigs/vsbys. Otherwise...VFR conditions behind this activity right through Thu night. Generally south-southwest winds 5-10 knots, but expecting a period of LLWS ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise...west winds 7 to 13 knots on Thu. Winds then become light NW Thu night and should decouple in the typical spots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate confidence in timing. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence. SW wind gusts of 20-30 knots across the waters diminish early this evening. Otherwise...we may have a surge of westerly wind gusts of 25 knots across our northern waters overnight into Thu morning. Nonetheless...lingering swell across our southern waters will only slowly diminish so small craft headlines will need to continue well into Thu. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ254>256. && $$