AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 128 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood Warning canceled for the Taunton River at Bridgewater, MA. Otherwise no significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - River and streams recede through Friday with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures. - Milder with scattered showers at times this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...River and streams recede through Friday with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures. Latest forecast shows the Taunton River at Bridgewater cresting just below its 8 foot flood stage through tonight, so the Flood Warning has been canceled. Along the mainstem Connecticut River, we expect to see slow rises with crests below flood stage Thursday or Friday. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Friday as it slowly heads offshore. This stretch of dry weather will allow river and stream levels to recede slowly for the next few days. Despite high clouds tonight, very dry airmass in place along with light winds should allow for another cold night. The usual cold spots, including river valleys and even parts of the upper Cape and interior of Martha`s Vineyard should see lows in teens tonight with 20s elsewhere. This latest shot of cold air will gradually retreat, with highs getting back into the 40s Thursday and into the 50s Friday thanks to S/SW flow. We should see sea breezes both days as the pressure gradient remains weak, so coastal areas will remain a bit cooler since water temperatures are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild with scattered showers at times this weekend. Zonal flow aloft this weekend gives way to broad trough developing over Northeast early next week as upper ridging builds over western third of country. This will bring a series of weak short waves through New England over weekend with two rounds of scattered showers, first being later Friday night into Saturday and the second in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Not seeing any signals for heavy rainfall at this point and ensemble probabilities only have low chances (20-30%) of seeing more than 0.50". Certainly looks mild over weekend with highs in 50s both days, perhaps a few locations touch 60 Sunday, then temperatures return closer to normal early next week with highs in 40s. Some of the guidance shows potential for some wet snow at tail end Sunday night as colder air arrives but even if it does occur it does not look to be impactful. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: High confidence. VFR. Light N winds give way to onshore winds along coast, before southerly winds prevail tonight and Thursday, with another round of sea breezes along coast. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the end of the week. SCAs remain posted on outer waters for slowly diminishing seas, which should fall below 5 ft offshore Thursday morning. Otherwise high pressure remains in control of our weather through the end of the week with light S/SW winds and local sea breezes near shore. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$