AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 223 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in a period of snow showers with light accumulations late Friday night into Saturday ahead of the arctic front, then additional ocean effect snow showers for Cape Cod and Nantucket through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and quiet weather through Thu night but with cold temperatures especially during the overnight and early morning hours. - More active Friday into this weekend. Bitterly cold into early next week. Chance for dangerously cold wind chills this weekend along with strong winds and heavy freezing spray over the waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and quiet weather through Thu night but with cold temperatures especially during the overnight and early morning hours. A ridge of high pressure in control will result in dry but cold weather through Thu night. This is especially true during the overnight/early morning hours given light/calm winds coupled with deep snow cover. This will allow for low temps to dip into the single digits in many outlying locations with even a few below zero readings in the normally coldest low-lying spots. Meanwhile...the urban centers and typical non-decoupling locations will bottom out mainly in the teens. Highs on Thu will be mainly in the upper 20s to near 30 with plenty of sunshine and light winds. KEY MESSAGE 2...More active Friday into this weekend. Bitterly cold into early next week. Chance for dangerously cold wind chills this weekend along with strong winds and heavy freezing spray over the waters. Our relatively quiet weather should end late this week into this weekend. Latest guidance suite added a slight wrinkle into the forecast. One low pressure is still expected to move well offshore of southern New England Friday. The wrinkle is what becomes of a second low pressure that was projected to move into the Great Lakes and northern New England. The latest guidance now has this low pressure essentially jump to somewhere around the NJ coast Friday night into Saturday morning in response to diabatic heating from the ocean and the arctic airmass poised to overspread our region. Some light, fluffy snow showers are possible across southern New England from the combination of the arctic front and weak low pressure. Snow showers could be more enhanced towards the eastern coastline by any lingering ocean effect processes. Some snow squalls are a possibility as well with this front. Right now, thinking sub-advisory level snowfall of 1-3 inches is possible through Saturday. The details are still coming into better focus, so further changes are possible with later forecasts. Following the arctic front passage, dangerous cold will settle over our region. Confidence is increasing in the possibility for cold weather headlines, especially when the core of this arctic air moves in sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning. Still looking like sub-zero minimum wind chills ranging from -10 to -30 degrees for most. Ensemble guidance continues to center the higher probabilities for wind chills below -25F towards the Berkshires and the higher elevations of central MA. These bitterly cold conditions are expected to last into the start of next week. As mentioned above, an offshore low is expected to deepen, which will lead to southern New England being caught in the tightening pressure gradient as high pressure remains towards the Great Lakes. Gale-force winds are a possibility over the waters, and we may end up needing wind headlines on land as well, particularly towards the outer Cape and Nantucket. Gale Watches posted for most of the coastal waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. With the elevated winds and very cold temperatures, confidence is increasing in the chance for moderate to heavy freezing spray over the waters this weekend as well. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon through Thursday night...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts at times between 20 and 25 knots this afternoon will diminish this evening. Otherwise... sustained NW winds generally 10 knots or less tonight through Thu night. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SN likely. Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence. Quiet weather across the coastal waters through Thu with winds and seas below SCA thresholds. NW winds will persist through Thu with gusts around 20 kt developing today. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow. Saturday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Local rough seas. Snow likely, freezing spray. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday Night: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Freezing spray. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Freezing spray. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256. && $$