AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 214 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase for a wintry mix late Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Arctic airmass keeps temps well below normal today and tonight -A wintry mix of precipitation is likely Tuesday into Tuesday night -Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic airmass centers over the region today as a 1040mb high drops down from Canada this morning. Despite the clear skies and the strong March sun angle, high temperatures will remain below freezing today. While winds will be light WNW today, the wind chill index will make it feel like the low 20s. Arctic high begins to move offshore tonight and 850mb temps begin to rise from -12C to -2C overnight. Despite WAA aloft, the dense cold air will stick to the surface overnight as the boundary layer decouples from the surface. With clear skies and calm winds overnight, low temperatures will once again dip into the low teens to high single digits. KEY MESSAGE 2... A weak wave of low pressure travels up the coast on Tuesday, bringing our next round of wintry precipitation Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. While a warm front will bring temperatures near or above freezing on Tuesday, residual cold air will allow precipitation to start as a wintry mix of snow/sleet, then transition to freezing rain before turning to plain rain. Confidence remains low on the timing of these precipitation type changes, which will be important to accumulations. Snow at this time appears light, mostly likely under an inch, with slightly higher accumulations possible in the high terrain. Freezing rain accumulation is less certain at this time, as temperatures may warm rapidly enough to prevent it outside the high terrain. HREF FRAM (Freezing Rain Accumulation Model) shows a widespread trace of 0.05 inches of ice accumulation away from the coasts. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed later Tuesday; however, confidence is currently below 50% that freezing rain accumulation will exceed a trace and cause travel impacts, given the warming temperatures and the switch to rain. KEY MESSAGE 3... The pattern remains active beyond Wednesday this week, as the jetstream remains zonal and sends several waves of weak shortwave energy our way, with a potentially stronger shortwave arriving Friday. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be well above freezing, in the 40s to 50s, while low temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing. The timing of these disturbances will be key to precipitation type, as precipitation during the day will fall as rain, whereas precipitation arriving at night may turn to a wintry mix, especially near the high terrain. Looking beyond Friday, the upper-level ridge takes aim for the weekend, potentially bringing well-above-normal temperatures. NBM shows low probabilities of reaching 60F on Sunday. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Monday through Tuesday Morning...High Confidence. VFR. N/NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Winds back to westerlies Monday afternoon then further back to SSW Monday night. Clouds begin to overspread the region Tuesday ahead of a cold front. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA, chance FZRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA, chance FZRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Morning...High confidence. Northerly winds of 25-30 knots with seas building to 5 feet across the outer waters where SCA`s continue through this afternoon. Widespread light to moderate freezing spray across the inner waters lingers through late this morning. Winds, seas, and spray subside later this afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$