AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 149 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures Fri/Sat with mainly dry conditions outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late Fri night/Sat am. - A significant winter storm is becoming less likely as model guidance comes into better consensus for Sunday night into Monday. - A warming trend for next week, featuring a low chance of reaching 50F in places. While dry, will be monitoring a mid to late week system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures Fri/Sat with mainly dry conditions outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late Fri night/Sat morning. With high pressure positioned to the the south and west, expect dry conditions during the day today with high temperatures in the 30 to mid 30s. A mid-level shortwave trough arrives tonight, bringing weak lift across the region to trigger showers. However, limited moisture will likely restrict activity to scattered light snow showers or flurries with little accumulation. Higher chances for a shower will be in western MA. Dry weather returns for Saturday as height fields moderate behind the mid-level trough. Expect breezy NW winds with gusts up to 20 mph and temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s during the day. KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm is becoming less likely as model guidance comes into better consensus for Sunday night into Monday. Those suffering from snow and/or winter fatigue might be pleased to know that a significant winter storm from Sunday night into Monday appears less likely at this time. A positively tilted trough moves across Baja California today, reaching the panhandle of Texas late Saturday afternoon, developing an area of low pressure over the Red River Basin. Guidance has come into better consensus, the area of low pressure associated with the southern-stream shortwave traverses the deep south, exiting off the Carolina coast late Sunday evening. As previously mentioned, a northern-stream shortwave ejecting out of the Great Lakes region during this same timeframe steers the coastal system out to sea. The ECMWF AI ensemble places the coastal low further north, with the edge of the precipitation shield grazing the southern most areas of RI & southeast MA. One thing we`ve noticed this winter, the depicted precipitation shield through AI models is a bit more coarse. ECMWF ensembles have provided outlying members the last couple of days, it appears with the most recent set of guidance the clustering has become more densely packed together near the mean area of low pressure southeast of the bench mark. Given the full suite of GFS guidance being offshore, it would be suggested this is a shutout for snow. While the ECMWF suite of guidance presents what are low probabilities (20-40%) of 1.0" of snow between 1pm Sunday and 1pm Monday across coastal RI and coastal areas of southeast MA. If we were to get any snow, this is where we`d expected it. As such we`ve maintained `slight chance` PoPs (15-25%) for said area during that part of the forecast period. Key Message 3...A warming trend for next week, featuring a low chance of reaching 50F in places. While dry, will be monitoring a mid to late week system. Monday to Thursday is seasonable, albeit warmer, with the warmest temperatures expected to occur Tuesday and Wednesday, from warm air advecting into the northeast as mid-level heights increase with ridging across the central CONUS. Given the prolong cold, it`s hard to believe the climatological high is around 35F in the interior and 40F for the coastal plain. Probabilities of high temperatures climbing above 40F on Tuesday and Wednesday are high, 70-90%. Probabilities lower when reviewing potential for high temperatures of 50F+, roughly a 10-20% chance for areas away from the influence of the ocean and the high terrain of northern and western MA. While days are warm, nights are seasonable in the upper 20s to low 30s. During this timeframe, our weather is primarily dominated by high pressure, leading to a fairly dry period. Will need to keep an out out for a mid to late week system. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions today with NW winds 5-10 kts becoming W after 21Z. Low chance for an isolated snow shower or flurry late tonight/early Saturday morning with higher probabilities in western MA/CT. Worst case scenario, this would result in brief MVFR conditions and a coating of snow. Saturday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-11 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Low chance for a snow shower/flurry overnight tonight, mainly between 06-12Z. Worst case this would bring brief MVFR and a coating of snow. More likely case is a trace of snow in any showers. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night through Washingtons Birthday: VFR. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday... High confidence. Lingering swell across the eastern outer-waters continue to diminish early this morning, falling below 5 ft shortly after sunrise. Then an area of high pressure builds in from the west. Westerly winds are light today, 8-12 kt becoming southwesterly Saturday with occasional gust 16-20 kt. Seas during this period are generally between 2-4 ft. While this is a dry period, a weak cold front does moves across the waters late Friday night into early Saturday morning, brief light snow possible. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Washingtons Birthday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250- 254. && $$