AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 603 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased confidence in a period of light snow Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Slight chance that the snow continues into Wednesday across eastern Massachusetts but confidence is low at this point. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Another very cold night tonight with wind chills down to 5 to 20 degrees below zero. - Warming trend Tuesday ahead of a clipper system that brings a chance for light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier and milder conditions follow late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Another very cold night tonight with wind chills down to 5 to 20 degrees below zero. After a bitter cold morning we`ve "warmed" up into the teens this afternoon under full sun but gusty winds continue to make it feel like the single digits +/- OF. Winds, while decreasing, will be slow to come down as mesoanalysis continues to show a tight pressure gradient. We`re sandwiched between the low to our east and a building high pressure over the Great Lakes. This high pressure center ever so slowly makes its way east as does a mid level ridge, but NW winds, while less breezy Sunday night/Monday, won`t become truly calm until late Monday/Monday night. The airmass will continue to moderate over the next 24 hours (925 mb temps rise to around -8C by tonight) but this still leaves us with one more night of wind chill values necessitating a Cold Weather Advisory. This will be in effect in CT and Western/Central MA where minimum wind chills are expected to reach -10 to -20F for several hours. Elsewhere it will still be very cold, feeling more like the negative single digits to low teens. Sunny skies continue Monday with warmer temperatures as the coldest air shifts away from SNE; highs reach the upper 20s. Key message 2...Warming trend Tuesday ahead of a clipper system that brings a chance for light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier and milder conditions follow late next week. More seasonable temperatures arrive Tuesday as the flow becomes more southerly ahead of an approaching clipper. NBM shows highs in the lower 30s for much of the area as 850 mb temps climb to between -5 and -7C. Increasing southerly LLJ on the order of 30-40kts advects higher PWAT values of around 0.5" over the CWA Tuesday afternoon as a warm front pushes ahead of an approaching clipper system . Weak mid-level frontogenesis provides enough forcing for areas of light snow and snow showers to break out around 18z Tuesday afternoon. Expecting areas of light snow to continue through Tuesday night and early Weds. Snow totals look light at the moment as the main low pressure will be fairly weak and well to the north of the CWA. Could even see some Ptype issues for the Cape and Islands with marginal boundary layer temps System strengthens as it moves SE and offshore during the day on Wednesday. Recent guidance has begun to hint at the possibility of an inverted trough as the system pulls away Wednesday afternoon. This feature could bring additional light snow to eastern zones into Wednesday afternoon. These kinds of setups are admittedly low confidence even in the short term, so given that we are still a few days away, the specifics will need to be ironed out with future forecast updates. Following this system, high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, drying the region out for the second half of the week. Ensemble guidance has temperatures moderating a bit and climbing back closer to climatological norms as well as a more climatologically normal airmass settles overhead. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update...No changes. Through Monday night...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 7-15 kt tonight with 20+ kt gusts along the immediate coast and higher elevations. NW gusts to 20-25 kt again Monday, diminishing overnight. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Headlines: * Gale Warnings converted to Small Craft Advisories * Heavy Freezing Spray headlines continue through tonight. N-NW gusts to 35-40 kt will gradually diminish below 30 kt this afternoon. SCA gusts to 25-30 kt will continue tonight well into Monday. Rough and hazardous seas today slowly subsiding tonight into Monday. Areas of moderate to heavy freezing spray will continue through tonight as arctic air combines with rough seas. Heavy freezing spray produces ice accretion rates up to 1 inch/hr creating very dangerous conditions for vessels. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for CTZ002>004. MA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ002>004- 008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-232-251. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$