AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 606 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Brief snow showers or possible snow squalls developing late this afternoon to early tonight, best chance for interior Southern New England but still possible for eastern MA and RI. Gusty to strong winds then develop tonight and peak overnight to early Monday before easing. Still monitoring a possible coastal storm system late in the upcoming workweek but uncertainty remains large on its strength and track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Overall low-impact weather is expected across southern New England Monday through Wednesday. - Unsettled pattern mid to late week featuring periodic chances for showers. Continuing to monitor a potential coastal system late Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall low-impact weather is expected across southern New England Monday through Wednesday. Residual WNW winds persist through the first part of today as the low-level jet gradually pulls away. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible through early afternoon before diminishing. Winds remain somewhat elevated into the late afternoon with gusts generally around 15 to 20 mph before weakening further Monday evening. Otherwise, quiet weather dominates through Tuesday as surface high pressure remains south of the region with subtle mid-level height rises. Dry conditions prevail with seasonable temperatures Monday, with highs mainly in the upper 30s as 925mb temperatures hover around -3C. A warming trends develops Tuesday into Wednesday as return flow strengthens. 925mb temperatures rise into the +0C to +3C range on Tuesday and +3C to +6C range Wednesday, supporting above normal temperatures. Highs reach the low to mid 40s Tuesday, with a notably mild day Wednesday. Highs Wednesday should reach the mid to upper 40s, and some locations south and west of Boston into RI and southeast MA could approach 50F. Seasonable low temperatures Monday night in the 20s, a tad warmer on Tuesday night with upper 20s for interior southern New England and low to mid 30s for the coastal plain. An Alberta clipper tracking towards the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night may attempt to dip southeast toward New England. However, high pressure offshore and a weak mid-level ridge east of the Gulf of Maine could limit southward progression and shunt the system northeast towards Quebec. If the system clips the region, the primary impact would be snow showers across the higher terrain of northwest MA and rain showers for the low elevation Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with minor accumulations possible. Though confidence remains low. Wednesday night, a surface low passing offshore may bring rain showers back toward the Cape, Islands, and portions of southeast MA. Beyond this period, guidance continues to advertise a deepening longwave trough late Wednesday into Thursday with a cutoff mid-level low developing southwest of the region, setting the stage for what could be an active end to the work week and start of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled pattern mid to late week, featuring periodic chances for showers. Continuing to monitor a potential coastal system late Thursday into Friday. There is good agreement among ensemble guidance for the upper-level pattern to shift toward a more amplified trough pattern across the east by late week. This will bring back colder temperatures (around/slightly below normal) by Friday. The pattern will also likely be active with a deep trough pushing eastward and several shortwave troughs moved ahead of it. A few pieces of shortwave energy appear to move through the flow near southern New England late Wednesday into Thursday. There is still question on how these disturbances track with respect to southern New England with one moving in from the west and another offshore. Overall, this will present a chance to see a round of light rain/snow showers to southern New England. Mean QPF is light overall, but any amounts will depend on the track of these waves which is uncertain right now. We continue to monitor the potential for development of a coastal low near/offshore sometime later Thursday into Friday. While a favorable track could bring widespread precipitation to southern New England, significant uncertainty remains. Model guidance continues to display plenty of spread in solutions and lacking run to run consistency especially with regard to the track, timing, strength of the surface low. Low tracks range from direct track across southeast MA to a complete miss offshore east or southeast of southern New England. There is also still uncertainty in the evolution of the mid- level trough and track of the closed 500mb low. Recent model guidance has trended downward overall in the QPF; however, this should be taken with a grain of salt given previous variance between runs. If that track is favorable, this could bring snow or a wintry mix to the region depending on how cold the airmass is. Based on the given variables, the potential for a coastal low to impact the region remains low confidence. Will continue to monitor trends as the details come into better agreement among guidance. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -greater than 60 percent. TAF Update: 12z Today and Tonight... High confidence. VFR. Gusty WNW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt thru mid- morning, then a gradual easing of winds/gusts through the late morning as a layer of mid-level clouds comes in. Gusts continue to trend downward in the afternoon with gusts diminishing late afternoon/early evening winds become WSW/SW around 10 kt which continue into the evening and overnight. Tuesday... High confidence. VFR, dry, with increasing mid-level clouds during the afternoon. SW winds 10-12 knots, coastal sites have occasional gusts to 18 knots. KBOS Terminal... High confidence. Gusty winds with gusts up to 30 kts this morning with direction hovering between WNW and W. Winds and gusts decrease in the afternoon out of the W/WSW. Gusts diminish between 21-00Z as direction shifts SW by 00Z winds around 10 kts. KBDL Terminal... High confidence. Gusty to strong WNW winds, gusts up to 30 kts into late morning, before easing midday. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday: VFR. Chance RA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday... High confidence. Gale Warnings in effect this evening on all waters. Initial westerly winds around 10 kt shift to WNW upon cold frontal passage and become gusty, with gusts 35 to 40 kt. Seas 7-12 ft on the outer waters with 3-5ft seas nearshore as the NW winds develop. Will need to downshift gale warnings to small craft advisories as winds begin to ease into early Monday morning, with winds becoming WSW around 15-20 kt by late in the day, and continuing into Monday evening. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of snow, chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ002-008-009. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230>237-251. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-254>256. && $$