AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend during next 2 days with unseasonably mild conditions Thu. Scattered showers Wednesday night into early Thursday, otherwise mainly dry weather. - A strong cold front brings rainy and cooler conditions Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming trend during next 2 days with unseasonably mild conditions Thu. Scattered showers Wednesday night into early Thursday, otherwise mainly dry weather. Weak subsidence behind a departing northern stream shortwave tonight will bring dry conditions through Wed. Varying amounts of cloud cover tonight, then sunshine will give way to increasing mid-high clouds Wed in developing weak warm advection pattern. SW flow will bring milder air into the region Wed with highs getting into the 50s away from the south coast. A weak shortwave passage Wed night with deepening moisture plume moving through may lead to a few showers Wed night into early Thu, otherwise drying out Thu with clouds giving way to partial sunshine. But clouds will move back in toward the end of the day with a low risk of showers moving into W MA ahead of approaching frontal system. However, most if not all the rainfall should hold off until Thu night. Becoming unseasonably mild Thu as increasing SW flow develops with warming low level temps. 925 mb temps increasing to 10C should support highs reaching the low-mid 60s, except 50s south of PVD-TAN-PYM, Cape Ann and higher terrain. Decent pressure gradient in place so expect breezy SW winds with soundings supporting gusts to 20-30 mph a times. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings rainy and cooler conditions Friday into the weekend. A strong cold front approaches southern New England Thursday night into early Friday morning, bringing another widespread, soaking rain. Ensemble guidance is currently indicating a surge of moist air ahead of the front, enhancing PWATs to 1.10"-1.25"... roughly 200-250 percent of normal for this time of year. Currently thinking this rain would last through the night and into a good portion of Friday morning, but it`s still a little early to nail down exact timing... regardless, southern New England could potentially see up to 0.5" of rain. Post-FROPA on Friday, a drier airmass will push into the region. Winds pick up as the boundary layer becomes well mixed throughout the day, with 20-30mph winds possible. As this drier airmass moves through, it will also bring dropping 850mb temps with ensembles indicating temps dropping down to -16C... roughly a -17C temperature anomaly. High temps likely occur early Friday morning before falling throughout the day with strong cold air advection. Highs struggle into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday before rebounding into the low 50s for the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF update... Through Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. SW-W wind 5-15 kt tonight, then SW increasing to 10-20 kt Wed afternoon. Wednesday night...Moderate confidence. Cigs lowering to MVFR after midnight with a few showers possible. SW wind 5-15 kt. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. A brief surge of SW winds to 25 kt develop tonight across eastern MA waters where SCA in effect. Then winds diminishing by daybreak Wed. SW winds increase again late Wed night and especially Thu. 5-6 ft seas over eastern MA waters will subside late tonight. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254- 255. && $$