AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Becoming more confident in springtime warmth, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning. - Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England, which may last into Saturday morning. We also can`t rule out some spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, but at this point we don`t have the confidence that it will be widespread enough to justify another round of Winter Weather Advisories. For now we issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential, and if it becomes more likely, then Advisories can be issued this evening. Otherwise, the weekend will feature milder temperatures, especially on Sunday as upper heights rise over region with increasing SW flow and we lose the low cloud cover a bit. Forecast soundings continue to show a deeply saturated environment which should keep clouds locked in on Saturday. A weak and fast moving low pressure system is expected to pass through New England Saturday night into Sunday morning and may bring a few showers, but rainfall amounts will not be impactful. KEY MESSAGE 2...Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu. Warmer weather looks to peak Tuesday when many areas will see highs well into 60s, if not the first 70-degree temperatures of the season in a a few locations. This is in response to the well advertised pattern change showing the subtropical ridge building to our south, but we are still close enough to northern stream to bring a few showers from time to time, most notably in Wed-Thu timeframe. Main concern is the potential for minor river flooding per ensemble forecasts (now in 20-40% probability range) starting with smaller rivers sometime Mon-Tue and larger mainstem rivers such as the Connecticut later in week (Thu-Fri). Many areas still have a deep and water-loaded snowpack with depths as high as 10 to 20 inches and water content of 3 to 6 inches. One thing we do have to watch is a backdoor cold front which may drop south into the region Wed-Thu (maybe as early as late Tue?). Looks like a classic spring setup with strong high pressure over eastern Canada. This may bring much cooler temperatures but there is a fair amount of disagreement among long range guidance in whether or not the front remains to our north (keeping us warm) or pushes south and brings cooler temperatures. As mentioned previously, it could be a typical situation where we have a very large temperature difference between northeast MA and southwest CT. We do see a cold front moving through by the end of the week, however, which should bring some showers and an end to the early spring warmth, but nothing unusually cold, more like average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Moderate confidence (40%). Fairly confident in widespread IFR/LIFR conditions through Saturday. Uncertainty revolves around extent of -DZ/-FZDZ and BR/FG through Saturday morning, but we`re starting to see light precipitation expand on coverage on radar, so conditions could lower quicker than forecast. Once conditions come down, however, we are unlikely to see improvement until Saturday, and even then it will be slow at best. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions could lower faster than forecast but am more confident in trends starting at 23z. Could see very brief -FZDZ but temperatures should stay just above freezing through the night. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions could lower faster than forecast but am more confident in trends starting at 01z. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA, patchy BR. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through the weekend. SCAs remain posted for lingering NE 25-30kt gusts into the evening, and a bit longer for the outer waters before seas where seas probably won`t subside below 5 ft through the weekend. Patchy fog and drizzle will linger through tonight, then we should see improving conditions Saturday as weak low pressure passes farther out to sea. Winds become S/SW over weekend before another weak and fast moving low crosses New England Sunday. This should bring another round of 25kt gusts to most of the waters. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$