AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure dominates Southern New England through Thursday night. A chilly night tonight, with sunny and dry conditions with increasing breezes Thursday favoring fire weather concerns. - Generally dry this weekend outside a few brief showers possible Friday night/early Saturday morning. Generally above normal temperatures Friday into Monday. Near normal low temperatures should briefly return Saturday night. - Temperatures trending well above normal early next week. Risk for scattered showers across interior southern New England. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure dominates Southern New England through Thursday night. A chilly night tonight, with sunny and dry conditions Thursday favoring fire weather concerns. Center of a broad and dry 1039 mb high pressure cell was located near eastern NY/Albany NY vicinity, and is expected to move SE offshore tonight and remain generally in place around the southeast waters of Southern New England through Thurs night. With very dry air, clear skies and light winds (modest southerly winds in western interior Southern New England), it creates a nearly ideal environment for strong radiational cooling. With ridge axis along the south coast, the coldest readings should be more confined to southeast New England, falling into the low-mid 20s and as low as the upper teens are possible. Otherwise lows should be more in the mid to upper 20s with just enough of a southerly wind. Main issue for Thursday is fire weather concerns. Full sun again expected Thursday. Will have stronger southerly winds develop with gusts around 20-25 mph away from the eastern/southeast coast, and though RHs won`t be quite as low as today, we anticipate RHs to be as low as 25 percent for areas north and west of I-95. This isn`t as clear-cut a case as temperatures are still rather cool, but will be issuing special weather statements for fire weather concerns in portions of MA, RI and CT this afternoon for Thursday after coordination with the state fire weather partners. Highs mainly in the 50s. Clear skies and light southerly winds again expected for Thursday night with good radiational cooling again likely; however dewpoints rise into the 30s with continued modest onshore flow and stronger cooling over land, it`s a potential sneaky setup for patchy fog along the south coast, Cape and Islands. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry this weekend outside a few brief showers possible Friday night/early Saturday morning. Generally above normal temperatures Friday into Monday. Near normal low temperatures should briefly return Saturday night. High pressure stays offshore Friday, permitting a cold front to pass through our region Friday night. There is some colder air behind this front, which should peak across southern New England Saturday night. Since we are starting above normal, this colder air should result in near normal low temperatures. Plenty of sunshine Sunday and winds becoming southerly should push temperatures above normal again for Sunday afternoon. Not a lot of moisture with this cold front. However, there should be enough to produce scattered showers. The greatest risk for a few hundredths of rainfall will be north of the Mass Pike. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trending well above normal early next week. Risk for scattered showers across interior southern New England. High pressure shifts east of the region early next week. The long range ensembles indicate upper level ridging over the Gulf nosing northward into New England with well above normal height fields. High temperatures should be mainly in the 60s Monday away from the coastal plain, and mainly in the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. A few locations could reach temperatures slightly higher than that, mainly in the CT River and part of the Metrowest Boston. These areas will avoid onshore flow with water temperatures around 40F. A few showers will be possible with a warm front Monday and perhaps by later Tuesday into Wednesday with shortwave energy approaching from the west along with a cold front. But overall, much of the time Monday into Wednesday should feature dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Rest of the Afternoon through Thursday: High confidence. VFR through this period. Winds this afternoon N/NE around 5-10 kt, a bit stronger 10-15 kt Cape and Islands, with seabreezes along the eastern MA coast. Winds tonight trend light SE, calm at times. Winds for Thursday trend SE to S around 5-10 kt, on the higher end of that range with occasional gusts to 20-22 kt for interior Southern New England airports. Thursday Night: High confidence overall, though moderate along the south coast, Cape and Islands. Mainly VFR; though with returning shallow moisture off the water, the potential exists for patchy MVFR-IFR visby fog after 01z Friday for PVD and the Cape airports. It is possible it may end up being still too dry for much development. South/southwest winds 5-10 kt inland, though light southerly/southeasterly over the south coast. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday Night: High confidence. Winds and significant wave heights remain below small craft advisory thresholds through Thursday night. NE/E winds 15-20 kt today ease tonight and become SE around 10 kt or less (and could turn calm for a while overnight). SE to S winds increase again Thurs to around 10-15 kt, though some gusts could approach SCA criterion over the waters east of Gloucester. Wave heights under 4 ft all waters. Possible risk for marine fog Thursday night, especially in the southern waters and adjacent to Cape Cod. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$