AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in dangerously cold wind chills, strong wind gusts and heavy freezing spray over the waters this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry through Thu with very cold nights. Temperatures trending colder Wed & Thu. - More active Friday into this weekend. Chance for dangerously cold wind chills along with strong winds and heavy freezing spray over the waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry through Thu with very cold nights. Temperatures trending colder Wed & Thu. A quiet weather pattern continues through the end of the week. A dry cold front crosses the region on Wednesday bringing slightly cooler temperatures to southern New England through the end of the week before a colder shot of arctic air this weekend. High temps Wednesday through Friday generally in the mid to upper 20s with much colder overnight lows generally in the single digits across the region. A dry column will support mainly sunny skies through Friday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...More active Friday into this weekend. Chance for dangerously cold wind chills along with strong winds and heavy freezing spray over the waters. Southern New England likely to remain under the influence of a weak high pressure through the end of this week. Expecting dry weather through most of Friday with temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal. Still expecting an arctic front to cross our region some time Friday night into Saturday morning. This will provide another surge of arctic air into this weekend. The core of this arctic air mass presently looks to arrive for Sunday, although this timing may change with later forecasts. Overall, this front continued to look moisture-starved, with its parent low pressure moving across northern New England. Not anticipating much snowfall at this time, but it is 4 days away which is plenty of time for things to change. Current thinking is more about snow showers and possible squalls with the arctic front itself, then transitioning to more of an ocean-effect snowfall. Wind direction will be everything here, controlling no only the amount of moisture available, but also the locations most likely to see accumulating snowfall. NW winds generally favor the coastal waters east of the Cape and islands. A subtle shift of even 20 degrees more northerly, could back this snowfall closer to the outer Cape and Nantucket. It will be another day or two before we have high confidence in the wind directions and corresponding snowfall accumulations. Thinking additional cold weather headlines will be needed at some point this weekend, both on land and at sea. expecting minimum wind chills of -15 to -30 across most of southern New England some time from late Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of the coast, as well as the islands. Finally, across the coastal waters, there is a high likelihood for a period of moderate to heavy freezing spray this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update...High confidence. Rest of today and tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Light westerly winds becoming light and variable overnight. Tomorrow...High Confidence. VFR. Sustained winds increase to 10 knots out of the northwest by late morning/early afternoon. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light northwest winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN. Saturday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday night...High confidence. Quiet weather across the coastal waters by early February standards through Thursday. Significant wave heights generally 1-2 feet. Light winds tonight increase out of the northeast tomorrow to around 15 knots. Some gusts to 20 knots possible at times. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Snow likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Freezing spray, snow likely. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Saturday Night: Gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$