AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGING ALOFT UPSTREAM AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WEST GULF ARE TEAMING UP TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT. GROUND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FURTHER OVERT MENTION OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE. FEW TO SCT FAIR
WEATHER CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.29 INCHES ON THE BRO EVENING SOUNDING...
WITH LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE...SUGGESTS VERY LIMITED SEA BREEZE
POTENTIAL...THOUGH ISOLATED BUILDUPS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON THE 00Z
TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER AREA TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY PATCHY PERIODS
OF LOWER CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THERE WILL
AGAIN BE SOME SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS TO PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DROP TO
BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY OF AROUND 15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE SHORT
TERM FCST PERIOD. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN A MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD AND REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE REGIONS OF TX AND OK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WWD TWD THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MDL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOSTLY DRY FCST THRU THE TERM.
HOWEVER...AS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DAYTIME HTG AND/OR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYTIME READINGS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAKNESS IN THE 700MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AS WELL AS A BROAD 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TX THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020
INDICATED WINDS WERE SOUTH AROUND 6 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 1 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  90  78  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  92  77  93 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            72  93  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN              74  96  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 101  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  90  79  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$