AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...OR OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THE MEANTIME...A
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO.  THE HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM...AND CURRENTLY IS ADVERTISING ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY MID WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
TODAY...THIS APPROACHING WAVE MAY BRING ENOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE
TO PROVIDE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THIS IS NOT TOO GREAT AS THE GREATER
MOISTURE RETURNS WILL BE OCCURRING JUST BEYOND TUESDAY.  BUT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND EAST WINDS TO RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER AND MID 90S NEAR THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLE
AROUND THE CENTURY MARK TOWARD THE UPPER VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE...AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP THERE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  FOR NOW HAVE
ADVERTISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
RATHER CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE 700MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT ONLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RELIEF TO
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO AS WELL AS ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
AGAIN TODAY.  WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE TODAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.  ON TUESDAY...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THIS FEATURE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN OR BELOW THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  79  89  79 /  10  10  20  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  77  92  77 /  10  10  20  50
HARLINGEN            94  76  93  76 /  10  10  20  50
MCALLEN              95  78  94  76 /  10  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  79  89  80 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$