AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 204 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE BROAD AND STRONG 500 MB AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME SPORADIC 5H VORTICES WILL ADVECT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX PROVIDING DECENT UVV OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR POTENTIAL CONV WILL BE THE CONTINUED LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING HAS PRETTY GOOD CAPE VALUES NEAR 4715 J/KG BUT THE PWAT IS ONLY AROUND 1.60 INCHES WITH THE BEST MOISTURE VALUES CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMS. THE MAV AND MET MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED OVER THE BRO CWA AND CONFINED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN TX. THE ECMWF IS WETTER VERSUS THE GFS AND NAM AND IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND NAM AND WILL MENTION 20 TO 30% POPS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST POPS POSTED FOR THURS AND THURS NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO KS. ALTHOUGH THE SWODY2 PLACES ALL OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX IN THE SLGT RISK FOR TOMORROW WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONV FOR THE REGION AS THE BETTER SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX REGIONS WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AND A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS. .LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CURRENT SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA FROM ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PGF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE MAJOR SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES STEADILY PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CALMER AND MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. ONE POSSIBLE HAZARD IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY CONV DUE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE UPCOMING CWF ISSUANCE. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREAS ON FRIDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 78 86 76 / 10 20 20 30 BROWNSVILLE 90 77 87 75 / 10 20 20 30 HARLINGEN 91 77 89 75 / 10 20 20 30 MCALLEN 93 76 93 77 / 10 20 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 76 95 74 / 10 20 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 76 84 75 / 10 20 20 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$