AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
218 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...IR IMAGERY IDENTIFIES A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF LOUISIANA MOVING WEST. HPC DISCUSSION
FAVORS A NON-NAM CONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FEATURE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. POPS NOW SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. THE UPPER FEATURE WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...AND THEREFORE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH A FEW RUMBLES IN THE AREA. THE FAVORED GFS MODEL DOES
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEXT
WEEK PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS AND MAY BECOME EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
SOME AFTERNOONS AS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO ENHANCES THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INCREASES THE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA BUT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 020 REPORTS MODERATE SSE
WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THAT WILL DRIFT NORTH AND INTO THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON MODERATE...EVEN EXERCISE CAUTION
STRENGTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS ON MONDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO ADVECTS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  79  91  80 /  10  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  92  78 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            94  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN              97  78  96  78 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  77  98  78 /   0  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$