AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1209 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011 .DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A FEW LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...EVEN BECOMING BREEZY IN THE MID VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MATERIALIZE ON SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 3 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FORMING LATER TODAY NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FARTHER INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS...INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE UPDATED DISCUSSION ON THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MID LVL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP A CONSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE STATUS QUO WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LOCAL RAIN CHANCES A BIT. UNTIL THEN...ANTICIPATE A QUIET STRETCH TONIGHT THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HUMID AIR MASS TO HOLD TIGHT LEAVING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO EARLY TOMORROW MRNG BEFORE MIXING TAKES PLACE AFTER SUNRISE AND BREAKS UP THE COVERAGE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A SUN/CLOUD MIXTURE ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WWD ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MRNG...MAINLY FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONT. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH TX. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE...THE 3 LOCAL TERMINALS REPORTED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES AT MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON VSBL SATL WITH MORE CONCENTRATED CU NORTH OF KBRO AND KHRL. FEW TO SCT CU EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN BEFORE CLEARING AS SEA BREEZE MOVES WWD. SOUTHEAST BREEZES MAY GUST AROUND 20 AT TIMES THRU THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS WITH THIS COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS BECOME MODERATE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 1.5 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS. A MAINLY QUIET AND FAVORABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT ANY STRONGER BREEZES SHOULD BE CONFINED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRIT FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THRU SAT NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INTO SOUTH TX. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS WEAK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 89 79 / MMM 10 10 20 BROWNSVILLE 93 78 92 79 / MMM 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 95 77 93 78 / MMM 10 10 10 MCALLEN 97 76 96 76 / MMM 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 75 99 76 / MMM 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 80 86 81 / MMM 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$