AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CREST OVER THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENTLY SHOWERS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM12 ...SREF AND GFS40 FOR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
GRIDS. WILL ALSO BLEND MODELS FOR SKY COVER. EXPECT CLEARING EARLY
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOR WIND WILL
BLEND THE NAM12 AND GMOS. THE GMOS WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE GMOS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGE UPCOMING WILL BE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE FINALLY SOME SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
W/PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START AND TEMPERATURES GETTING WELL INTO
THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST WILL CAP OUT EARLY AS A SSE
WIND WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE BANGOR REGION. WENT ABOVE GMOS
FOR MAXES W/READINGS AWAY FROM THE DOWNEAST REGION HITTING NEAR
THE MID 80S.

CLOUDS WILL START MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN GEM LOOKED GOOD IN SHOWING CLOUDS(STRATUS) MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD THE COAST. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THIS TREND STARTING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BLENDED THE
GFS AND NAM12 W/THE GEM FOR THE SKY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT
ON INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS
ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AS THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM
AND NOW THE ECMWF ARE HOLDING BACK THE RAIN W/HIGH PRES RIDGE HOLDING
IN LONGER. THEREFORE...KEPT MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT DRY W/HIGHEST
CHCS FOR ANY RAIN HELD BACK TO THE W AND SW. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY W/A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT NEAR SOUTHERN MAINE POSSIBLY SLOWING
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. KEPT LIKELY POPS(70%) GOING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWED THINGS WINDING DOWN BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
REGION LOOKS TO GET DRY SLOTTED. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW/S
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO OFFSET CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...LET TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY. QPF IS A
BLEND OF THE GFS/GMOS AND SREF WHICH SHOWS BASIN AVERAGES OF .25
TO .30 INCH MAINLY FOR THE N AND W.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOWN FOR THROUGH THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO
WET WEATHER AND DRIER WEATHER.

00Z ECMWF SLOWS THE SYSTEM UP W/UPPER LOW DRIVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FOR THE N AND W WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A DRIER SCENARIO INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHILE THE NAM IS THE MIDDLE.

ATTM...LOADED IN THE GMOS AND ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IN THERE FOR THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
GIVEN THE UPPER TROF/LOW...COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST TO LOW 70S WHILE THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL SEE MID
70S. LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY W/HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
WORKING ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL IS SHOWN TO AFFECT
THE REGION.

STAYED CLOSER TO GMOS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURES. ONLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE POPS ON
FRIDAY TO DROP THEM BACK W/DRIER AIR SET TO WORK INTO THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START THINGS OUT ON TUESDAY AND THEN IT LOOKS
LIKE MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR WILL SNEAK INTO BHB AND POSSIBLY BGR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL
TAF SITES ESPECIALLY BGR AND BHB GIVEN THE SSE WIND FLOW.
IMPROVEMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR BGR AND BHB WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LOOK TO STAY IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT LEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR
WIND GRIDS. THE VISIBILITY/FOG WAS GENERATED FROM THE LAMP25. FOR
WAVES HAVE USED THE SWAN/NAM. INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE FIELD LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH PERIOD BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY THIS WILL
DOMINATE. LOCAL FETCH WILL DOMINATE LATER TONIGHT AS WIND
INCREASES.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. FOLLOWED THE GFS/NAM12 BLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOWS WIND BECOMING MORE SSE BUT STAYING
UNDER 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THAT...STAYED CLOSER TO GMOS AND WNAWAVE THIS CYCLE W/SOME
SMOOTHING TO THE WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT TO BRING THEM DOWN A BIT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE