AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
132 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH WEAK GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF
MONDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY DAY ON TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S. SOME CLOUDS
MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL THEN
THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTAINING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. CAPES ARE
NOT VERY HIGH BUT GIVEN THE DAYS HEATING WESTERN AREAS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM. LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM...HOWEVER...INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY CIRCULATE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA SHOULD DROP INTO
THE AREA BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. RIDGING MAY BRING SOME WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES IN ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN IFR IN
FOG BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MONDAY AT 10Z.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO IFR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN VFR
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER TO VFR IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
FOG CONTINUES TO LIMITED VSBY BUT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO SCOUR OUT FOG MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE