AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
956 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...HRRR AND NAM12 IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NEW YORK TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE DECREASE CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT THEN INCREASE CLOUDS AND POPS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THINGS ARE WINDING DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO
PASS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. THESE AREAS WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 FOR LOWS TONIGHT
SO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY RN/SN SHWRS OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA MON MORN SHOULD BE EXITING
INTO NRN NB AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES E. THIS WILL LEAVE MCLDY
CONDITIONS N AND W AND PTLY CLDY S AND E WITH SLIGHTLY BLO
SEASONAL HI TEMPS.

MON NGT...A FAST MOVG AND FLAT S/WV FROM THE LOWER GREAT LKS WILL
BRING MCLDY SKIES OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WITH CHC TO LIKELY LGT RN
POPS. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE STRONGER GFS AND WEAKER NAM SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN A QPF TOTAL AND DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE SREF MEAN...
WITH OUR GRIDS SHOWING S SHARPER NRN CUT-OFF OF QPF. NRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD BE PTLY TO MCLDY AND DRY DURG THIS TM PD. COOL
CANADIAN HI PRES THEN DOMINATES THE FA TUE INTO TUE NGT WITH MORE
IN THE WAY OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WED...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS...NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED OUR FA TDY...WILL APCH
FROM THE W WITH CLDNSS AND PRECIP FROM LATE MORN ONWARD. ONE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE SHOWN BY THE MODELS ATTM IS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
LLVL JET...SO WINDS SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG
OF AN ISSUE WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS TDY`S SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE
FROM ONSET INTO WED NGT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THIS LATEST SYSTEM
THOUGH...WITH PRECIP BEGINNING AS A MIX PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER TO
THE S BEFORE CHGNG TO ALL RN. THIS CHGOVR WILL OCCUR FIRST OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS WED AFTN AND SLOWLY WORK INTO E CNTRL AND NRN PTNS
OF THE FA INTO WED NGT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW PRECIP
EVENTS THIS MONTH...STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE WITH PRECIP BEGINNING AS A LGT SN OR A MIX...DESPITE HI
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA. 6 HRLY QPF`S
WERE A BLEND OF 12Z NAM...GFS AND HPC. HIGHER QPF TOTALS ACROSS
THE NW 2/3 OF THE FA WED SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVR THIS PTNS OF
THE FA BY WED AFTN...WITH LIKELY POPS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
SHOULD FALL MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IN ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE LOOK TO IT WITH MINIMAL PRECIP. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. USED A BLEND OF
GMOS/MEN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INITIALIZED ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
WITH GMOS AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN
SITES WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND VSBY TO
MVFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR THRU TUE NGT...WITH BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES MON MORN AND OVR DOWNEAST SITES MON
NGT IN RN/SN SHWRS. MVFR IS XPCTD TO MOVE IN FROM THE W ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WED MORN...LOWERING TO IFR IN STEADY RN...MIXED PRECIP
OF SN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA WED AFTN. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL TAF SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS
MORNING...THEY WILL STAY GUSTY TO 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: WE XPCT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU MON AND LIKELY
CONT FOR SEAS OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051 INTO MON NGT BEFORE
COMPLETELY SUBSIDING TUE THROUGH TUE NGT. THE NEXT CHC OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE MIDDAY WED INTO WED NGT WITH THE APCH OF THE
NEXT SFC LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HASTINGS