AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
717 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 7AM: TOOK OUT MENTION OF TSTMS UNTIL MIDDAY. ELIMINATED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR TONIGHT IN EAST. INCREASED POPS TO A WIDER AREA
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS DOWN EAST FOR THIS MORNING.

INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SKIES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY UNDER BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN MAINE ON MONDAY. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW, PLAN TO KEEP
POPS LOW ON MONDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FOR NOW. USED A
BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWN EAST THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM HUL NORTHWARD WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS END. ALL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUES THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FOG
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER NW WINDS ARRIVE.
TONIGHT...SEAS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 3 TO 4 FEET.

SHORT TERM: WNAWAVE HINTING AT POSSIBLE SWELL FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO FEET, ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW