AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
909 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE2: FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS ARE DIMMING
SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO MUCH
OF TODAY. FAR NORTHERN SPOTS REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

UPDATE 1: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHGS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHGS TO CLD CVR ERLY THIS MORN...MSLY OVR DOWNEAST/E
CNTRL AREAS...AND INCORPORATED LATEST DEWPOINTS. HRLY TEMPS LOOK
TO BE REASONABLY ON TARGET THIS HR.

ORIG DISC: LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BKN-OVC HI CLD CVR STREAMING
W TO E ACROSS DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SRN BR
S/WV AND BKN HI CLDS STREAMING W TO E JUST N OF THE FA AHEAD OF A
NRN BR S/WV. SFC HI PRES SHOULD HOLD ON THRU THE FIRST TWO THIRDS
OF THE DAY TDY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES E INTO THE MARITIMES. ONCE THE
500 MB S/WV RIDGE ALF PASSES E OF THE FA THIS AFTN...HI/MID CLDNSS
SHOULD INCREASE THICKEN MORE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FA MID
TO LATE AFTN.

MODELS FOR TNGT PREFER TO SPLIT THE BEST LOW AND UPPER LVL DYNAMICS
N AND S OF THE FA TNGT AS EACH RESPECTIVE S/WV TRACKS JUST N AND S
OF THE FA. THE LATEST 00Z GFS BRINGS THE S EDGE OF DECENT LIFT
WITH AN AREA UPPER LVL DVRG WITH THE NRN S/WV RIGHT ALG THE ST
JOHN RVR VLY LATE TNGT...SO WE SHOW LOW LIKELY POPS HERE. THIS
SAME MODEL RUN BRINGS THE BEST LIFT WITH THE SRN S/WV ALG THE SRN
EDGE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...WHERE WE ALSO SHOW LOW LIKELY POPS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BETWEEN S/WVS WE SHOW CHC POPS
OVRNGT. SHWRS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
ELEVATED CAPE TNGT...SO WE INDICATE ISOLD TSTMS WITH SCT SHWRS AND
CHC TSTMS WITH NUMEROUS SHWRS. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW POPS AND
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT...WE INDICATE LGT 6HRLY
QPFS...WITH ISOLD HEAVIER QPF POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SPCLY LATE TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE DOWN EAST...TOWARDS THE
COAST...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS LIFT IS REFLECTED BY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...EXCEPT A FEW
80F READINGS AROUND BGR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WHILE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S SUNDAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A WARM DAY FOR NORTHERN MAINE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR TO DATE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.  BY LATE DAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE...BRINGING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND A LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY MONDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS POINT AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO
SHIFT DOWN EAST AND ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE FOR
TUESDAY. THE KEY QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE FRONT CROSSES THE
STATE AND ALLOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO STABILIZE. HAVE NOT HIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES AFTERNOON...BUT IT
CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PATCHY VLY FOG DEVELOPED OVR NRN/
E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN...THEREFORE...VFR ANTICIPATED
THRU EARLY EVE...THEN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MARINE BKN-OVC
MVFR ST DECK REACHING KBGR BY 06Z AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR REACHING
KBHB BY THE SAME TIME. LATEST 12Z TAFS REFLECT THIS THINKING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT SOME IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO CIG/VIS.
THIS WILL QUICKLY LIFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR BHB AND BGR. THE NEXT WEATHER
EVENT OCCURS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE`S ALSO THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT LGT...SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA
TDY AND TNGT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN WAVE HTS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PROBABLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB