AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 635 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF APPROXIMATELY 10-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. LGT/VARIABLE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TUTT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY WEAK WINDS TONIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PATCHY FOG OVER THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR NEAR SUNRISE...HOWEVER THE NEAR SFC INVERSION DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND GOOD 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER...EXPECT SFC WINDS TO BE NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY..THE TUTT IN THE GULF HAS BEGUN ITS WEST MVMT THIS AFTN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF DRT BY 00Z MON WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC W/ THE SYSTEM SHOWN BY MODEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH IS STRONGEST SUN BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE W/ MOISTURE FIELDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND CHANGE RUN TO RUN...BUT GENERALLY SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE MON W/ GFS SHOWING MORE LINGERING MOISTURE INTO TUE THAN BEFORE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLD POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES ON SAT. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SW ALTHOUGH WE MIGHT BE A BIT SUBSIDENT SAT GIVEN POSITION OF THE UPR LOW JUST EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE SEEMS TO LAG A BIT AND IS NOT GREAT ON SUN...MODELS (ESP NAM12) DO SHOW UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN IN THE AFTN AND DECENT CAPE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLD POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME -7 TO -8 DEG F H5 TEMPS ASSOC W/ THE COLD CORE LOW AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG PULSING STORMS...ESP INLAND IN THE AFTN. MON STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT CONVECTION AND WILL BUMP MONS POPS UP SLIGHTLY SHOWING 20-40% NOW (HIGHEST NE). AGAIN A PULSE STRONG STORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY INLAND ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM AT THIS POINT. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN NERN AREAS ON TUE AND AM SHOWING LOW END SCT FOR NERN ZONES WITH ISOLD ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE TO DROP POPS BACK TO UNMENTIONED 10S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB AGAIN AFTER A FEW DAYS OF COOLER HIGHS GIVEN INCREASED PRECIP SUN-TUE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 95 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 73 97 74 97 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 LAREDO 77 104 77 104 79 / 0 10 0 10 10 ALICE 72 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 79 86 79 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 73 101 74 102 75 / 10 10 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 73 97 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 91 78 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$