AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 415 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. HWR A REGION OF MSTR CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SWRN GULF MAY ENTER THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG CIN OVR THE CWA DRG THE PERIOD...YET THE NAM PROGS AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIMITED AFTN CIN. WILL ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTN IN THE 105-109F RANGE OVR THE FAR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CONDUSIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SFC WIND SPEED/SEA HEIGHT MAGNITUDES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BRINGING HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 105 TO 109F FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ON TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON...AND HOW MUCH IT WILL AFFECT SOUTH TEXAS... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEING BROUGHT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS HAVING THE SYSTEM FOLLOW THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...GRAZING THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GULF... SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE IN THE MIDLEVELS BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG CAP...WHICH WILL IN TURN ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF 20 POPS BEGINNING MIDWEEK DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND KEEP MENTION OF 20 POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DID INCREASE TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY AS PWATS ARE TO BE HIGHEST REACHING TO 1.8+ INCHES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO TWOAT /TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK/ FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING LATEST INFO WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS SO KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 96 75 95 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 96 76 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 107 79 106 78 108 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 99 73 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 92 80 91 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 104 75 103 74 103 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 96 74 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 91 78 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$