AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CAN BE SEEN DVLPG ACROSS S TX ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH
14Z...MAINLY FOR ALI TO VCT. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE VFR. A FEW TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND...HOWEVER WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAF`S DUE TO THE ISOLD BRIEF NATURE OF ANY TSRA`S THAT
DVLP. MVFR CIGS ARE EPECTED TO BE MORE PROMINENT TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVG W ACROSS
S TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY MVG W PER THE WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY...S TX WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
LOW. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY
BUT SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLD CONVECTION AT BEST. MAINLY WEAK SHRA`S OVER THE
WATERS THIS MORNING THEN A STRAY -TSRA OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFT ACROSS S TX TONIGHT THEN INTO W TX ON SUNDAY
PLACING S TX ON THE MORE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. PWATS ARE
PROGD TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS...LITTLE CIN...MOD CAPE AND A WEAK JET STREAK
ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME ENERGY/LIFT. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO BE A BIT MORE SCT ON SUNDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON HIGHS TODAY THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE/PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME
BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE TODAY
INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW MOVG INTO W TX AND DEEPENING THE SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TX PAN HANDLE. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP THIS
MORNING...THEN MV INLAND BY AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA`S AND TSRA`S ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE TUTT LOW EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY MORNING AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY. GFS/SREF/NAM MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. BUT NEGATIVE FACTOR
WILL BE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCREASING AS THE TUTT LOW EXITS TO
THE NORTHWEST. WILL STILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE MONDAY BUT LOWERED POPS TO
JUST 30 PERCENT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY AND EVEN THOUGH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEABREEZE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WOULD INCREASE THE
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  76  93  77  94  /  10  10  20  20  30
VICTORIA          98  73  96  75  97  /  20  10  30  10  30
LAREDO           105  77 103  80 104  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE            100  74  96  75  98  /  10  10  30  10  30
ROCKPORT          91  81  88  81  93  /  20  20  20  20  30
COTULLA          103  74 100  75 101  /  10  10  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        98  75  97  76  95  /  10  10  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  89  80  91  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$