AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
759 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TO 85H TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST MAINTAINING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH 2.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STABLE
AIRMASS AND EXPECTED DRIER AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL
PUT AN END TO THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS TO SHOW THE
CURRENT TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FOR REST OF THE NIGHT ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...TEMPO IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT ALI/VCT WITH VFR PREVAILING
CRP/LRD THEN TRANSITIONING TO VFR ALL TERMINALS FOR FRIDAY.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS S TX WITH
TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT CRP/LRD. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE
OVERNIGHT IS IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS OVER AREAS WHICH SAW SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FG AT ALI/VCT TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH
VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY LRD/ALI WITH VFR CIGS. LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT
TO BECOME MODERATE FROM THE ESE FRIDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL VORT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEING
ENHANCED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND IS RIDING DOWN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY JUST INLAND
(3200 J/KG OBSERVED ON 18Z CRP SOUNDING). DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST REFUGIO...SOUTHERN BEE...WESTERN SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST
NUECES. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS BRINGING DOWN POWERLINES AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERAL
SMALL WILDFIRES. THE THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH THE SEABREEZE
PUSHING INLAND AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. VORT EXITS WEST OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY DAY TOMORROW...EXCLUDING A STRAY SHOWER
ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY IN AXIS...AND WILL BE
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HURRICANE IRENE AND THE
SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES...LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO HAVE
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE HIGHEST MARKS SO FAR THIS SUMMER ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
MORNING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST AND ALLOW EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A TRANSITION TO EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

MLG/77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77 100  76 103  78  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          76 103  74 106  75  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            79 106  79 108  80  /  30  10   0   0   0
ALICE             74 104  74 107  76  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  96  79  97  80  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           76 105  77 108  77  /  20  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75 101  76 107  76  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       79  94  79  96  79  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$