AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST NEXT 24 HRS AS MANY WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. ALL TERMINALS
PROG TO BECOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT/THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-RA TO RA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND HAVE
INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALI/CRP/VCT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HOURS BEING FAIRLY
DRY. DIFFERENT SITUATION FOR KLRD WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED IN
DEVELOPING UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR
DEL RIO AND MOVE SE ALONG RIO GRANDE POSSIBLY CLIPPING KLRD BY MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/

DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAND
ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO JUST
WEST OF DEL RIO. ALOFT A 60 TO 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK IS
BEGINNING TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO S TX. LAPS ANALYSIS ALONG WITH 00Z
AREA RAOB/S INDICATE SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES PRESENT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES FOR CONVECTION...AND CIN. COMBINATION OF
CIN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA AND FEEL THAT CONVECTIVE
SUPPRESSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MORNING.

HAVE REDUCED 40 POPS ACROSS W/NW ZONES TO 30 FOR TONIGHT BUT
INCREASED POPS FROM 20 TO 30 ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. REDUCTION AREAS ARE RELATED TO CURRENT LACK
OF CONVECTION AND PRESENCE OF CIN. INCREASE OF POPS ACROSS NNE
ZONES IS DUE TO PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM KAUS WEST TO KERV AND IS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD. BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO N AND NE ZONES BETWEEN 9 AND
12Z AND WHEN INTERACTING WITH INCREASING JET STREAK
ALOFT...AND PROGD LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

OTHER CHANGES TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS BASED
OFF CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING STORM THREAT FOR THURSDAY.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL GREATLY DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE/HOW MUCH/AND
HOW STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND BECOMES. DID NOT ADJUST ANY
FORECAST GRIDS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW
CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH PANS OUT OVERNIGHT. UPCOMING
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE COMPLETE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  85  76  92  66  /  20  50  40  10  10
VICTORIA          75  84  72  91  59  /  30  50  40  10   0
LAREDO            79  95  76 102  70  /  30  40  30  10  10
ALICE             77  90  74  96  64  /  20  50  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  83  75  89  66  /  20  40  40  10  10
COTULLA           76  92  73  95  63  /  30  40  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        77  88  75  96  65  /  20  50  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  83  76  88  69  /  20  40  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$