AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTING EASTWARD
WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. NAM INCREASES
PW VALUES NICELY THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MORE LIKELY BE AFTER THE SEA BREEZE HAS
ADVANCED INLAND A BIT.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT
TONIGHT...THINK WE`LL SEE LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STATUS QUO FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

PATCHY FOG IS A QUESTION...HAVE BEEN SEEING IT THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT AGAIN WITH WINDS STAYING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
INLAND...SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE
WILL WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH PWATS AVERAGING
1.7 INCHES. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE JET WILL POSITION
ITSELF OVER SOUTH TEXAS...MORE SO OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH FORECAST MODELS
SHOWING 2+ INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH MORE FOCUS
ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. HIGHER PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY MIDWEEK
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST MODELS PICK UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ON THE UNDERSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER POOL OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST...AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  93  76  94  77  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          73  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            77 103  78 103  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  98  75  96  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  90  81  91  83  /  10  20  20  20  20
COTULLA           73 101  75 100  75  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  90  80  87  80  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$