AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION...LAKE BREEZE IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME WITH PORT ARANSAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICTORIA AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS S TX THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS AND AM EXPECTING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY`S WX WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT BEST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NE SHIFTING SW AROUND THE RIDGE THEREFORE KEPT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE VCT AREA FOR TODAY. MODELS DO SHOW MOISTURE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF MOVES WEST TOWARD THE TX COAST. THE NAM PLACES THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS DOES. THE NAM PROGS PWATS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW AN INCREASE JUST NOT AS MUCH. BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY STILL BE TO THE E OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY PLACING S TX ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE...AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLD...BUT DID GO WITH A LARGER AREA OF 20 POPS. IF NAM IS CORRECT...THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO CHC CATEGORY ON SATURDAY. MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE TODAY INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TX PAN HANDLE. A FEW SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP THIS MORNING...THEN MV INLAND BY AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARD DEL RIO BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM STILL LAGS AS MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.50-1.75 INCHES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER 00Z NAM...06Z NAM CLOSER TO THE REST. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD LOWER. AS THE TUTT LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY...HIGHER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING TO THE NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A WEAK 25H TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MODESTLY UNSTALBE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE TUTT LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EXPECT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ON THE SEABREEZE FOR TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR WED/THU. 89/TMT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 94 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 20 20 VICTORIA 73 97 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 LAREDO 77 104 79 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 73 99 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 91 81 91 83 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 74 102 75 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 75 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 78 90 80 87 80 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$