AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATE FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. TRENDED A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER ON POP...WITH SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINING S OF THE MA/NH
BORDER. ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME MTNS...EARLY DAY SUNSHINE IS
ALREADY POPPING CU ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.

SCNTRL NH AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING...AND EXPECT THE STRONGER
CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. SW/V TROF PASSING THRU CNTRL
QUEBEC WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WRN PARTS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTN. ALSO A STATIONARY FRONT...OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND ATTM...WILL
SLOWLY RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT REACHES
INTO ME LATER IN THE DAY...SO TSTMS LOOK TO BE LESS OF A
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLD RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED FOG/STRATUS WILL EXPAND INTO COASTAL NH/ME AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TDS BEGIN TO RISE.
THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TSTMS
AS THEY MOVE EWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND AND SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST. EXPECT
VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO GRADUALLY PUSH MARINE STRATUS OUT
OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

CLEARING SKIES AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH
SOME MARGINAL CAPES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MAINE BUT
THINK MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...SO NOT PLANNING ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN WARMER SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT
WITH FAIR SEASONABLE WX. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NGT AS WARMER MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN ON SW FLOW AT SFC AND
H8. UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TROF MOVES E FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT FORCING A SFC CD FNT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE W...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND VERY SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FNT VERY WRM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ACTIVITY A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FNT MOVES THRU
LATE TUESDAY.

BEHIND THE FNT COOLER AND DRIER WX MOVES IN ON FAIRLY GUSTY NW
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W
LATE THURSDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX.

GENERALLY USED GFS40, HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING. BECOMING VFR EARLY
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRES BRINGS
MOSTLY VFR WX SATURDAY NGT THRU SUNDAY NGT WITH AN APPROACHING CD
FNT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA AND PSBL TSTMS MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY WITH PSBL MVFR OR IFR CIG/VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRES KEEPS WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NGT THRU SUNDAY NGT. WITH THE
HIGH OUT TO SEA AND AN APPROACHING CD FNT MOVING IN FROM THE W
EXPECT S OR SW FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND SEAS TO BUILD
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL
SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$