AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 920 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 .SYNOPSIS... THE STORM SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MADE A QUICK UPDATE LAST HOUR TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS EVNG ACRS NH AND WRN ME TO RELECT THE STG S/WV THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVNG. SHWRS/SCT TSTMS CURRENTLY ACRS ERN NY MOVG RAPDILY EWD...THESE SHUD BE ARRIVING BETWEEN 00-03Z. ACRS NH AND WRN ME CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM. STG CAA ALFT THIS EVNG MAY QUICKLY CHG THE RN SHWRS TO SNW SHWRS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. PREV DISC; THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TNGT WITH THE TRAILING CD FNT WELL OUT TO OUR E. A TROF OF LOW PRES SLIDES THRU OVERNIGHT AS AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU. THIS WILL PROVIDE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER NRN AND CENTRAL AREAS /WITH -SHRASN OR -SHSN OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE N AND MT ZONES/. BEST CHC FOR ANY PRCP OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER MORE NRN ZONES WITH LOWEST CHC NEARER THE COAST. W SW WINDS WILL STILL GUST A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT NOT REACHING ANYWHERE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING VERY CD BUT THEY STILL DO COOL OFF FROM WRM DAYTIME TEMPS. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THRU THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY WITH A SFC TROF OF LOW PRES MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRASN IN THE N AND MT ZONES BUT OVERALL JUST PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO A WESTERLY WIND. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST ECMWF/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STRONG IMPULSE THEN ARRIVES FROM THE MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH JET REMAINING CLOSE BY EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STALLED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERRUNNING WITH NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW ARE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERRUNNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL AT TIMES...MAINLY AT LEB IN ISOLD -SHRA OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM... TUE NIGHT - WED NIGHT...MVFR IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LIKELY WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL CONT THE SCA THRU THE SHORT TERM FOR WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 KT OR SO AND FOR VERY ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDING...BUT REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. LONG TERM... TUE NIGHT - WED...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... RECENT HEAVY RA AND SN MELT HAS ADD MOISTURE TO FUELS TO REDUCE FIRE DANGER. DRY WX TNGT AND MONDAY WITH ISOLD TO SCT LGT SHOWERS PSBL BUT NO REAL QPF WITH THEM. DRY WX TUESDAY WITH NEXT CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRCP ON WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... HAVE DROPPED ALL THE FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOWMELT IN THE HEADWATERS IS GOING TO CEASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND ALSO NO ADDITIONAL PCPN OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED...THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN TO SLOW. OTHER THAN RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD WITH FLOOD WARNINGS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL RIVERS OR SMALL STREAMS TO RISE ANY FURTHER. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT THE PWM TIDE WILL REACH THE 12 FT TIDAL FLOOD STAGE. PREDICTED IS 11.6 FT AT 1117 PM THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORM SURGE LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT. HAVEN`T RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE PAST TWO HIGH TIDES...BUT MOST LIKELY SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION OCCURRED EVEN THOUGH THE TIDE FELL JUST SHORT OF THE 12 FT BENCHMARK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$