AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
154 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW/V TROF ROTATING THRU CNTRL QUEBEC WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THRU THE CWFA TNGT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH THRU SCNTRL NH
AND COASTAL ME TDY...KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. HOWEVER...TO
THE N SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED GOOD DIURNAL RECOVERY AND CU
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLOWLY
RETURNING WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE RICHER
MOISTURE LIES TO THE S. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL
RETURN NWD INTO SCNTRL NH AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND TNGT. TO THE
E...MARINE INFLUENCES AND A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION WILL LIMIT SFC TSTM
POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS...SO AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WITH COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WORKING THRU...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DRY
OUT SHRA ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH SOME NWLY UPSLOPE CONTINUING
IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH AND WRN ME. TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
REMAINING SHRA WITH THE FROPA WILL PUSH EWD EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES SAT NGT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL LOW
TEMPS. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT
WITH FAIR SEASONABLE WX. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NGT AS WARMER MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN ON SW FLOW AT SFC AND
H8. UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TROF MOVES E FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT FORCING A SFC CD FNT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE W...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND VERY SLOWLY TUESDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FNT VERY WRM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ACTIVITY A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FNT MOVES THRU
LATE TUESDAY.

BEHIND THE FNT COOLER AND DRIER WX MOVES IN ON FAIRLY GUSTY NW
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W
LATE THURSDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX.

GENERALLY USED GFS40, HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES LATE THIS EVENING.
BECOMING VFR EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRES BRINGS
MOSTLY VFR WX SATURDAY NGT THRU SUNDAY NGT WITH AN APPROACHING CD
FNT BRINGING AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA AND PSBL TSTMS MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY WITH PSBL MVFR OR IFR CIG/VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRES KEEPS WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NGT THRU SUNDAY NGT. WITH THE
HIGH OUT TO SEA AND AN APPROACHING CD FNT MOVING IN FROM THE W
EXPECT S OR SW FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND SEAS TO BUILD
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL
SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEGRO