AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The upper level ridge over Southern CONUS has yet to go anywhere, however we have seen a slight weakening in the past few days, causing it to shift towards our west. This is allowing for a trough to make itself known to our east, and shifts us into a more northerly flow aloft. Between this and positive vorticity sneaking into the region, things are looking a tad more interesting for tomrorrow`s rain chances. Guidance suggests this may slightly increase the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening (generally less than 20%), however new rainfall amounts are likely to be less than 0.1 inches. Tomorrow`s highs remain in the 90s, low-90s along the coast and mid- 90s in our areas further towards the north. Temperatures tonight are going to be in the upper-70s through much of the region, though the Houston-metro and our coastal areas are likely to not fall below 80. Tomorrow night is much of the same, though some areas may reach the mid-70s. These warm nocturnal temperatures will only make our hot afternoons feel worse, so make sure you are drinking plenty of water and check in on neighbors and family members. Speaking of warm temperatures, the Heat Advisory is still in effect until 8pm CDT, so take caution when doing strenuous outdoor activity. Guidance is trending towards high heat indices tomorrow afternoon as well, which we will be monitoring carefully overnight. Regardless of whether or not another Heat Advisory is issued, the heat index is likely to be in the triple-digits throughout the entire region. Ellis && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The dominant midlevel ridge over the South Central CONUS will build slightly heading into the weekend, allowing for a slight increase in daily maximum temperatures. In general, the synoptic pattern will continue to support hot and humid conditions with daily heat index values approaching Advisory thresholds at times. Highs will generally sit in the mid to upper 90s through Saturday, potentially reaching the triple digits for a few inland locations on Sunday and Monday. These elevated temperatures, as well as dew points in the mid to upper 70s, will at least prompt a consideration for Heat Advisories as apparent temperatures approach the 107-110 mark for many of our inland zones. With skies generally remaining mostly clear to partly cloudy, abundant incoming solar radiation will produce High to Extreme WBGT values each afternoon. Heat stress will be further compounded by elevated overnight lows, with values sitting in the upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the immediate coast/barrier islands. Given the risk of heat-related illnesses posed by these conditions, it will be important to keep heat safety precautions in mind. This includes taking actions like remaining hydrated, applying sunscreen, wearing light colored and loose fitting clothing, and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest parts of the day. Daily rainfall chances will continue to be confined to the typical summertime pattern -- i.e. airmass thunderstorms and showers/storms triggered by the inland propagation of the sea and ba breezes. As such, while most of the area at some point over the extended period could receive some form of measurable rain, storms should be neither intense nor long-lasting. Rainfall totals, aside from elevated localized totals in the event of an isolated stronger storm, will be largely negligible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Not much change from the previous update. Generally VFR cigs/vis through the TAF period. There may be periods of MVFR cigs overnight into the morning hours, especially north of Houston where we have TEMPO groups for BKN015-BKN020. Winds become southwest this morning before backing south this afternoon. Sea and bay breeze could result in a period of southeast winds late Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Marine conditions reflecting a typical summertime pattern are expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas ranging from 2-4 ft and daily chances of isolated thunderstorms. Tide levels will also remain elevated over the next few days. Conditions should generally remain below caution thresholds. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 78 96 77 / 10 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 79 96 78 / 20 10 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 89 83 90 82 / 10 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227. GM...None. && $$