AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011 .AVIATION... AREAWIDE MVFR MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED IFR THROUGH 14-15Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S NE TEXAS COOL FRONT) HANGING UP JUST NNE OF METRO. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WIND SHIFT...A NEAR CALM WIND FIELD WITH POOLING MOISTURE. EXPLAINS THE SUDDEN FALL INTO IFR AT KIAH. GENERALLY...HUBS NORTH OF THIS SLOWLY SOUTHERN-SAGGING BOUNDARY CAN EXPECT MVFR...SITES NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL GO BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING. A SHARP LL INVERSION WILL SET UP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A LOWER (COOLER) SATURATED 2K FT LAYER BEING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL INVERSION. INVERSION`S EXISTENCE A PRODUCT OF MILDER MID-LEVEL SWIRLIEST OVERRUNNING A COOLER DOME OF AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. POSSIBLY OF A -SHRA NEAR BOUNDARY (CLOSER TO COAST) BUT PROB/AREAL COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO PLACE VCSH IN TAF. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT REGION WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF BREAK UP TO VFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR DECKS FILLING IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CATEGORIES DURING MONDAY MORNING`S PUSH. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/ DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD STRUGGLE REACHING 70 DEGREES...WHILE SPOTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH 80 DEGREES. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING CAP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HEATING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS POTENTIAL EVEN GETS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...SO FEEL IT IS BEST TO CARRY 20% POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY EASIER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHOWING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING UP AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS WHEN TODAY`S COLD FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AND AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MIGHT EXIST ON TUESDAY FOR SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES MIGHT COME ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. UNDER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES ON INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK MIGHT NOT COME UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTION`S ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...THURSDAY WOULD END UP BEING DRY. WITH THIS FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DOES GET EAST OF HERE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WE END THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 42 && MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK NORTHEAST TEXAS COOL FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. NEAR 10 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE ONSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MID-WEEK WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS A LEADING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS ON THURSDAY. IN THIS FRONT`S WAKE...STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL PROMPT AREAWIDE SCA`S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CONSISTENT AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...CLOSER TO 4 FOOT HEIGHTS PAST 20 NM OFFSHORE. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 51 70 62 80 / 10 10 10 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 79 58 74 63 81 / 20 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 78 65 73 65 77 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$