AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 622 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011 .AVIATION... BREAKS IN THE MVFR CEILINGS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN. BY 15Z EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO HAVE AT WORST VFR CEILINGS. MAIN ISSUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE IN FORECASTING CEILINGS TO RETURN BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z...WITH MVFR LIKELY. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ DISCUSSION... MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SURFACE DEW PTS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA BENEATH A STOUT CAP HAS PRODUCED A DECK OF STRATO CU THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAYBE A TAD WARMER. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SO AM EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. DESPITE THE HIGHER HUMIDITY...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND DRY GROUND FUELS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. BOTH SPC AND HPC HINT AT ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THE CAP IS BREAKABLE OVER THE NORTH IF TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WHICH SEEMS LIKE A BIT OF A STRETCH. THAT SAID...TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. A DRY LINE WILL PUSH EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL STALL JUST EAST OF I-35. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CAPPING LOOKS A BIT WEAKER AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE ON THURSDAY AND CAPPING STRENGTHENS. WEATHER MAKERS ALL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND WITH A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER ON SUNDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN STALL NORTH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH REGARD TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE DETAILS. ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE. 43 MARINE... MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WINDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND BRING A RETURN TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS...FEEL THAT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SINCE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL GUST ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 72 91 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 85 72 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 79 73 83 73 81 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$