AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 852 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011 .DISCUSSION... SE TX SAW A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL FAIRLY SPOTTY...AND MOSTLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...BUT SOME HEAVIER TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES FELL OVER PORTIONS OF SAN JACINTO..LIBERTY...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED THIS EVENING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT TOWARDS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LESS ACTIVE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY BEGINS TO DRY OUT AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN THE TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE NEAR 100 AGAIN OVER INLAND AREAS BY THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011/ AVIATION... 500 MB VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WEST OF CWFA. MUCH OF CWFA HAS STABILIZED DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN COOLED AIR. WITH INITIALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD EXPECT CXO TO HAVE MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT. WE INDICATED CB CLOUD GROUP LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND HOLD OFF (FOR NOW) WITH VICINITY CONVECTION. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE. 37 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011/ DISCUSSION... CONVECTION OVER SE TX SEEMS TO BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. STILL NOT SURE HOW MUCH RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE. GOING TO LEAVE THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW IN CASE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER HAS HELD MAX TEMPS DOWN BELOW 90 FOR MOST AREAS AND LOW 90S IN OTHERS. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING 2.2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AND AS NAM/GFS SUGGEST PRECIP WATER SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER PLAINS LOOKS TO BE MOVING EAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER VORT MAX DEVELOPING IN THE NE GULF. THINK THAT POPS AROUND 20/30 PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK BUT SUSPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THU AND POSSIBLY IN THE FRI...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SCT IN COVERAGE. MODELS TEND TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT THE VORT MAX AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF TOWARDS SE TX ON THU. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL LINGER AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER DROPS BELOW 2 INCHES FOR FRI/SAT SO 20 POPS MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED WITH A CENTER OVER THE PLAINS AND FLORIDA. LOOKS LIKE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NW GULF AND SE TX BY MON NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. FORECAST WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY BUT KEEP 20 POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND PRECIP WATER COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TYPICAL FOR THE MID/END OF JULY. SHOULD SEE UPPER 90S COME BACK FOR MOST AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERALL GUIDANCE NOT DOING A BAD JOB BUT HEDGED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER IN MOST AREAS. 39 MARINE... AFTER TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF TO THE WEST...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS MIGHT GET CLOSE TO CAUTION LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 97 77 97 77 / 10 30 20 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 94 77 / 10 30 20 30 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 91 81 91 82 / 20 30 20 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$