AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OFF THE TX/LA COAST WILL
MOVE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INTO THE MID COAST SECTION OF THE
TEXAS COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ON
SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PUT CB IN ALL TAF FCSTS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS MIGHT INCREASE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE
WEST TONIGHT. BY LATE SATURDAY IT SHOULD BE MOVING UP THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SE TX LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SUNDAY MAY
EXPERIENCE LESS COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT DO
INDICATE THAT DAILY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
ALMOST CERTAIN.

WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. A RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

40

MARINE...
NO FCST CONCERNS. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH LIGHT WINDS &
LOW SEAS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE FCST ONCE AGAIN. VFR OUTSIDE ANY AFTN/EVNG SEABREEZE
PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  75  99  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  95  76  97  75 /  20  30  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$